Tuesday, August 4, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Milwaukee Bucks



Having started this process late, I didn't get to Milwaukee until their summer makeover was mostly complete. It's now the beginning of August and the Bucks have already traded away their best player from last year (Richard Jefferson), let their best young talent go without anything in return (Charlie Villanueva), and are on the verge of letting their best value player (Ramon Sessions) leave without any return. As a small market team, many of the Bucks' moves have been financially based. They couldn't afford to keep Jefferson, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut, then pay young players like Villanueva and Sessions their market value. And with the Bucks' record, it wouldn't have made much sense anyway. But realizing what you're doing isn't working isn't enough. Milwaukee now needs to come up with a plan that actually will work and make them competitive.

Small market teams can't afford to make the same mistakes that other teams do. Teams like Milwaukee cannot attract the types of free agents who can alter a franchise's identity without severely overpaying. They can't make wrong decisions on players who don't fit their style of play because it is too costly to get rid of them. Milwaukee has committed to a certain philosophy with Scott Skiles, but doesn't have the players to fit that style. Here's a couple of suggestions of how to make that happen and get the Bucks closer to competing for the playoffs consistently:

1) Trade Charlie Bell and Kurt Thomas.

Based on his playing and coaching history, Skiles likes to play a lot of small ball and have multiple players who can create off the pick and roll create havoc. Skiles is not afraid to give up all sorts of physical advantages if he can play a smart, gritty team. It's the same as he was when he played.

Milwaukee's major problem with this philosophy is that they don't really have players who fit that mold. With the amount Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd are making this season and next, it makes more sense to get the right types of players around them and increase their respective values rather than trading them now. Bell and Thomas actually aren't bad fits, but as solid veterans on expiring contracts, they represent the Bucks' best chances to upgrade their roster.

A number of teams have committed to making a run this year and may be willing to give up on some young talent for veteran help. Washington is a good example of a team who might be willing to part with somewhat duplicative young talent (Andray Blatche) for a veteran big man like Thomas. Charlie Bell is versatile enough to make a big difference off the bench at both guard spots for playoff contenders like the Lakers (in a package deal for Jordan Farmar), the Jazz (for CJ Miles if he's not going to be in the rotation), the Rockets (for Brian Cook and a draft pick). Whoever and whatever picks Milwaukee can trade for the two is likely to be better than what the Bucks could get for $7.6 million of cap space next summer. Francisco Elson and Malik Allen also fit into this category, but would probably bring back much less. But if they can be traded for some young potential, the Bucks should pull the trigger.

2) Move Michael Redd to the 3 and Joe Alexander to the 4.

I know that Redd is not a 3 and Alexander is not a 4. But without the talent to compete, Milwaukee has to create chaos by playing small and awkward. This is a Skiles specialty. When he coached the Bulls, Skiles often played Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon and Chris Duhon together for large chunks of time in the 4th quarter with either Luol Deng or Andres Nocioni at the 4. They spaced the floor, passed well and rotated faster on defense than most teams. They couldn't rebound, but at least this gave the Bulls a shot. And these unconventional lineups took a mediocre team much deeper in the playoffs than they should have gone on talent alone.

If the Bucks get some more help at the 1, they could cause some of the same matchup difficulties. Alexander is quick athletic enough to be a pain in the ass for most 4's, and it masks his basketball IQ issues by moving him further from ballhandling duties. Redd isn't all that creative off the dribble for a 2, but he's probably above average at the 3 and a pain in the ass for most 3s to chase around. Neither will be able to defend their positions very well, but it's not like they were great defenders last year either. And Skiles is pretty good at hiding below average defenders. He was able to do it with Ben Gordon for years.

At a minimum, playing Redd at the 3 and Alexander at the 4 should increase each player's offensive output (and as a consequence their trade value). It is unlikely that either fits into Skiles' ultimate plans or can get the team over the hump. So while Milwaukee tries to find players who can get them to the playoffs, they need to maximize the value of their current assets. This would do that better than just rolling the ball out and letting these two play.

3) Run the offense through Andrew Bogut at the high post.

Right now, the Bucks don't have enough ball handlers to play the way Skiles' teams have in the past. Luke Ridnour and Charlie Bell probably fit the bill, and it's hard to name anyone else. Brandon Jennings probably isn't ready and will probably benefit from the teaching on the bench more than playing through his mistakes right now. As quick as he is, Jennings would probably be able to compensate for his mistakes and have more success than he should based on where he is in his development. But for the Bucks to turn the corner, Jennings has to be good and not just lucky. He needs to learn the game first.

So how do the Bucks get the most out of who they currently have? Bogut has to become a great passer. In the same way that Redd and Alexander have the ability to cause matchup problems, Bogut has the ability to draw defenders away from the basket to open up attacking lanes. With everyone except for Redd, you can go under screens and clog the lane against Milwaukee. The guards aren't really threats to shoot long jumpers off the dribble and the bigs aren't really huge threats to pop. The only real threat is the roll. Getting the ball to Bogut at the high post alleviates that problem somewhat by placing everyone in a position where they are a threat to score. The guards can spot up more where they are more apt to catch and shoot, and the bigs start their plays closer to their scoring range.

To take full advantage of their coaching choice, Milwaukee needs to become a few things. They need to become tougher, they need to become smarter as a team, and they need to become better shooters. The Bucks don't have the salary cap space to get it done and Milwaukee isn't really attractive to free agents anyway. Until they can get rid of some of their bloated contracts and get players who can fit their philosophy, the Bucks should play small to get the most out of the talent they already have. Milwaukee also has to feature its center and play to his finesse strengths, because at $10 million per year for the next five years, he's going to be their centerpiece for a long time.

Most importantly though, Milwaukee has to pick a plan and stay the course. If they keep changing the plan, they will never get to a point where any plan can work.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Indiana Pacers


An unusually high number of teams in the League have maneuvered themselves so most of their contracts expire in after this year. Unfortunately for the Pacers, their contracts don't expire until 2011. As a lottery team without expiring contracts, Indiana is in a tough position. In Danny Granger, they have just enough talent to avoid the bottom of the standings. But you don't get better getting late lottery picks.

The Pacers have been rebuilding for what seems like a lot of years now. It feels like the process is taking longer than it should because the team is afraid of some of the personality issues that have plagued the team in years past. Larry Bird seems a little gun shy and would rather get decent guys who might make the playoffs instead of more volatile guys who might compete for a title. Other than Danny Granger, there isn't much in Indiana that can be called a building block for a championship. Pacers fans don't want nice pieces though, they want difference-makers. Here's how Indiana can get back in the thick of things quickly:

1) Trade Jeff Foster. Contending teams would love to have a veteran big man like Jeff Foster. He's smart and defends the post pretty well, which is critical in the playoffs. When he can't defend, he uses his fouls early and in a way that he doesn't give up many and-one's. Well, the Pacers aren't really close to making the playoffs or winning a series even if they do sneak in. So the smart move would be to trade Jeff Foster for some young developing talent who might be able to help Indiana improve its talent. A team like Washington has committed to its current core and could use Foster to anchor its defense. With two young bigs like Andray Blatche and Javale McGee not ready to contribute consistently, the Wizards might be willing to trade Blatche and DeShawn Stevenson for Foster, who would help them a lot immediately. Golden State is another team who could use some veteran help on its frontline, and may be willing to part with some promising younger players like Brandan Wright and Kelenna Azubuike. The point is that Indiana should see what it can get for Foster now while teams are trying to top one another in the summer and before Foster's play declines.

2) Package some of the younger players for a more talented, riskier talent. Indiana is pretty much stuck in the middle of the pack because they can't get enough talent to change their fortunes. While the Pacers got lucky with Granger, the odds of duplicating that type of pickup with late lottery draft picks and no money under the salary cap are not good. Indiana just signed Dahntay Jones, who should fit in nicely next to Danny Granger and as a compliment to Mike Dunleavy if and when he comes back. That should also make Brandon Rush expendable. Rush should be expendable either way because even at his ceiling he's not talented enough to really change Indiana's standing in the League. With a modest salary and sweet shooting stroke, Rush should have some value and could return a player with more upside if the Pacers are willing to give up the known for something more risky. Bill Walker and JR Giddens come to mind, for example. The same things could be said about Roy Hibbert.

I am not sure if there is a market for players like TJ Ford or Troy Murphy, but they aren't going to turn Indiana into anything more than a first-round loser in the playoffs at best. If one could be packaged, Indiana needs to go for it.

3) Play Granger at point forward.There aren't many suggestions for Indiana because they are stuck with big salaries for guys who won't make that big of a difference. Ford, Tinsley, Murphy and Dunleavy all could help some teams around the League. But none of them can carry the load, and all are under contract until 2011. In the meantime while they wait to put the right pieces around Granger, the Pacers should try to develop him into an elite player at the 3. Granger can obviously score the ball, but he can't lead a team yet. He isn't the best at creating for others. While they are stuck in this limbo for another year, Indiana should see if they can't groom Granger to be more versatile so they can increase the number of players who would fit well around him. If he's healthy, the Pacers need to try to do the same thing with Mike Dunleavy. Other than Granger Indiana doesn't have the talent to create mismatches, so they have to try to move players to new positions to create the same effect. A 6'10" point guard would cause teams to match up to you, and not have you always matching up with other teams. Usually, the team who creates the most matchup problems wins.

Unfortunately for Pacers fans, there aren't a lot of answers on the short term horizon. Indiana does not have the talent to make a big leap or the contract situation to improve their talent. Until 2011 when they do, the Pacers need to work on the one building block they have in Granger and take more risks. You can't live afraid of getting another Ron Artest or Jermaine O'Neal forever.


Thursday, July 9, 2009

Is Shawn Marion Still Worth This Much?


Getting straight to the point, I have no idea what the hell Dallas is doing in this sign-and-trade for Shawn Marion. I don't think Marion has five productive years left, and if he does I think they are more than likely at the 4. That's Dirk Nowitzki's position, in case the Mavs forgot. I also thought Jerry Stackhouse's contract was much more valuable than overpaying Marion. Not to mention Dallas threw in Antoine Wright? I absolutely hate this trade for the Mavericks. In more detail, here is exactly why:

Dallas is built around Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry, whether Terry starts or not. While Kidd is an important piece to their puzzle, those are the three players who make the Mavs run. Dirk eats up most of the minutes at the 4, Howard at the 3, and Terry at the 2. Dirk is Dallas' primary option because he's such a difficult matchup. He's 7 feet tall, which makes him big even for the 4 position. But he's also a threat all the way out to the three-point line and off the dribble, which means he has the ability to take most 4's far away from their comfort zones on the defensive end. He can post, he can spot up, he can beat slower defenders with his handle. He is a matchup nightmare for most teams. Dallas usually goes to Howard early and often in the first and third quarters, and then he fades and tends to float as the game progresses. When Howard disappears, Terry often steps up and takes his place as one of the Mavs' primary options next to Dirk.

How does Marion help any of Dallas' strengths or take away from its weaknesses? I have no clue. He doesn't really help Terry or Dirk much. He could help Howard some by moving him to the 2, but there's not much about the way Howard plays that would be all that much more effective at the 2 than it is at the 3. Howard attacks for five minutes at a time, then disappears. That's not going to change by getting someone else to play off the ball, it will only change by adding someone else who can play on the ball and distribute the ball to keep Howard engaged. Not exactly what you get Shawn Marion for.

Marion's best position in his career has been the 4 because he rebounds extremely well and has huge athletic advantages over most 4's. The advantages Marion had over most 3's were much greater than the size advantages he gave up. But where is Marion going to play for Dallas? After signing Marcin Gortat to play the 5, most of Marion's minutes will have to come at the 3 where I don't think Marion holds much of an advantage anymore. He's never been all that proficient off the dribble, and at 6'8" isn't really all that imposing anyway. So you have a player in Marion whose career success has been predicated on his incredible athleticism. You trade for him to play a position where he doesn't have the same athletic advantages, and you sign him for 5 years when his athleticism seems to be waning? Doesn't make sense.

The only way playing Marion at the 3 makes the Mavs any better is if you pay Howard more minutes at the 2. Howard can probably give you spot minutes in the backcourt, but isn't exactly scary there and means that either Kidd or Terry has to sit a little more. Howard is not aggressive or consistent enough for that move to make a lot of sense.

A lineup with Howard and Marion on the wings does allow for Dallas to match up better against the changes made by the Lakers and Spurs. The Mavs are right in that Howard and Wright would not have fared well against Manu Ginobli and Richard Jefferson, or Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest. But Dallas overpaid by a lot for an aging player whose best position isn't where he's now going to be playing. The Mavs gave up an extremely valuable piece in Jerry Stackhouse's contract just for the right to sign a player who will not be effective for five years to a five-year deal. In a League where everyone seems to be trying to cut costs, Stackhouse had one of the more attractive contracts available. And the value of Stackhouse's contract is that he was attractive to every team looking to cut payroll for next year or to balance out their roster. Teams like Charlotte (Gerald Wallace or Raja Bell), Chicago (John Salmons), New Orleans (James Posey), and Washington (DeShawn Stevenson and Andray Blatche combo) all become viable.

While Marion is still an above-average player, that's at the 4 and not the 3. At the 3, he's pretty much middle of the pack. I don't think this makes Dallas all that much better in the short term. It doesn't seem to add up.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Detroit Pistons


Less than a week into free agency, the Pistons have already done a lot this summer. They added Austin Daye in the draft, then agreed to terms with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva on the first day free agents were allowed to talk to teams. A lot of people are confused about what exactly Joe Dumars and Detroit are trying to do. The Pistons now have Gordon, Daye, Rodney Stuckey, Rip Hamilton, Will Bynum, and Tayshaun Prince under contract for their perimeter positions, but only Villanueva, Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown to fill minutes as their bigs. Whether you can see Dumars' vision yet or not, what is clear is that the Pistons are changing their image and style of play.

Most former players who become GM's try to build a team in their own image. Of course that makes sense. People draw on their own experiences and characteristics that helped them become successful to map out what should make a successful team. John Paxson and Larry Bird tried to build teams around heady, high IQ players and put less emphasis on physical talent. Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, Troy Murphy, Jeff Foster, Travis Diener, and even Jamal Tinsley to a certain extent are all examples of this. Isiah Thomas and Michael Jordan tried to build teams around physical talent with the hopes that they could teach those players how to play. This is why Thomas brought in Zach Randolph when he had Eddy Curry in New York, and why Jordan traded Rip Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse.

Like most former players, Dumars is trying to build the Pistons around his strengths as a player. By signing Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, it seems that Detroit will be built on its versatility. While neither are primary ball handlers, both can handle the ball well enough to cause matchup problems and can score off the dribble. Just like Dumars and Thomas and Mark Aguirre. The question the Pistons have to answer has less to do with how their new players fit in and everything to do with how its two remaining starters from the 2004 championship team mesh with the current plans. So here is what Detroit can do to make their vision clearer and return to contender status as quickly as possible:

1) Trade Tayshaun Prince. There have been some rumors about Detroit shopping Rip Hamilton, but it seems like Prince is a worse fit for the Pistons' new core. Stuckey can play the point and the 2. Gordon can play the 2 and give very limited minutes as a backup 1. When Stuckey and Gordon are in the backcourt, Hamilton can swing over to the 3. Villanueva can play spot minutes at the 3 in addition to his minutes at the 4. Prince is the only key perimeter player Detroit has who is sort of stuck playing one position. And the Pistons will have to capitalize on their versatility to keep up with more talented players like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. The NBA is about creating matchup advantages, then having players who can take advantage of the opportunities from those mismatches. Without an elite superstar talent, Detroit has to have players who can play multiple positions to create and capitalize on their opponents' weaknesses, much like Orlando did against Cleveland by playing two perimeter forwards at the same time.

Detroit should see what they can get for Prince now before they run into a situation like last year where there aren't enough minutes to go around for their perimeter players. A couple of trades that work and may make sense include Prince to the Clippers for Chris Kaman or Marcus Camby, to Portland for some combination of its young talent like Channing Frye and Nicolas Batum, or to Utah for Carlos Boozer. Another interesting trade option for Prince would be to the Suns for Ben Wallace. Giving up Prince for a player who is thinking about retirement would be tough for Detroit fans to swallow, but it would make the Pistons players in next year's free agent market again and drastically speed up the rebuilding process.

2) Trade Aaron Afflalo. Under normal circumstances, Afflalo wouldn't have the same value that he does now. But with the salary cap decreasing and teams more reluctant than ever to go over the luxury tax threshold, players on their rookie contract who can contribute to the rotation are more valuable than ever. With the Pistons' backcourt depth and frontcourt holes, Afflalo is a luxury Detroit cannot afford. Teams like Toronto, Denver and New Orleans all have obvious financial needs that may cause them to give up players or future assets that they wouldn't otherwise part with. If they can get back a big man, the Pistons may also be able to trade Kwame Brown way above his normal market value due to his expiring contract.

3) Target Amar'e Stoudemire. It's no secret that Stoudemire is going to be one of the big-name targets for a lot of teams next year. What's also not a secret is that Stoudemire wants to be the franchise player wherever he goes. That's where a team like Detroit fits in. Most other teams with cap space next summer will not have the backcourt pieces in place the Pistons have. The other teams also will likely be vying for other free agents, which will not feed into Stoudemire's ego the way that Detroit can. And Stoudemire would be a better fit in Detroit than almost any other team he could go to. The Knicks still need a playmaker to make Mike D'Antoni's offense go, Chicago will likely alienate Stoudemire to some extent by rumors of concerns about his character. Miami should have enough cap space to go after Stoudemire, but has Michael Beasley at the 4 as well, and Stoudemire will likely not want to think he is a 5. If Detroit can get under the cap, they may be the best option for Amar'e. Assuming the Pistons are able to trade Prince for expiring contracts, their 2010-2011 lineup could look something like:
  • Rodney Stuckey
  • Ben Gordon
  • Rip Hamilton
  • Charlie Villanueva
  • Amar'e Stoudemire
Detroit would still have players like Jason Maxiell and Austin Daye to round out its bench. That's a young, exciting and versatile lineup that fits Stoudemire's style of play and would make him the focus that he craves. Every night, someone should have a matchup advantage to make the team competitive against just about everyone.

Joe Dumars has a decent vision for the Pistons' future. He doesn't have a star playmaker, so he is creating a lineup based on creating more mismatches than anyone else. But Dumars cannot stop there. He has to be bold and creative in order to keep the Pistons moving in the right direction. If he can take a temporary hit this year and clear some salary cap space, Detroit just might get Amar'e and be in a position to make another long run at the top of the Eastern Conference.

Monday, June 29, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Cleveland Cavaliers


There is only one other time I can remember this much panic surrounding a 60-win team: when Dallas was knocked out in the first round of the playoffs a few years ago by Golden State. Even that felt different. Maybe it’s Cleveland’s long-standing history with sports failures, or maybe it’s just nerves from LeBron James’ impending free agency. Whatever the reason, this much panic pretty much guaranteed that the Cavs would not stand pat and try it again next year with the same cast. That’s why it’s no surprise that Cleveland went for the biggest name available in Shaquille O’Neal. I’ve already discussed what I think of that deal, so I won't spend much time or energy going over it again here. Besides, this is about what the Cavs can do now that the trade for Shaq has been made.

For the Cavs, everything is about winning the title this year. Sure, in the draft they picked the guy from the Congo whose name I won't bother looking up. But next year's plan is simple: re-sign James and then figure everything else out. Ultimately LeBron's decision is out of the Cavs' hands, so all they can and should worry about it winning it all this year. They still have some work to do this summer to make that more likely:

1) Trade Anderson Varejao. The media consensus after the Cavs lost to Orlando seemed to be that Cleveland needed a more mobile, perimeter oriented 4 to match up with players like Rashard Lewis. While there is some truth to that, upgrading the 4 position should not be the Cavs' priority anymore. First, part of the reason that Cleveland's 4s had such a hard time guarding Lewis was because their centers were getting killed by Dwight Howard. While Shaq is getting up there in age, he's still about as strong as they come. The Cavs shouldn't have to help so much down low this season, which should ultimately help their perimeter defense as well. Second, there is a little known flaw in this roster that Danny Ferry built: Cleveland does not have a single player between 6'2" and 6'8" (or 6'9", whatever LeBron really is). Delonte West is currently their "big" guard, and LeBron their only option at the 3 other than Jawad Williams. Whatever deficiencies JJ Hickson and Darnell Jackson may have at the 4, the Cavs are in much better position shoring up their wings than they would be adding another power forward to the mix.

For Cleveland to get something good, they will likely have to give something good, and Varejao is their best asset they can part with. Teams who might be interested in a sign-and-trade, depending on what Varejao is seeking, include Charlotte (for Raja Bell and filler), Oklahoma City (for either Desmond Mason or Damien Wilkins and filler), and Washington (with Andray Blatche or Nick Young paired with DeShawn Stevenson, if Stevenson and LeBron can get past their previous issues).


2) Play LeBron off the ball and at the 4 more. It sounds sort of funny with the minutes LeBron plays, but finding him a good backup might be the most important addition the Cavs can make this offseason. That's because finding someone else who can play the 3 is the key to Cleveland taking advantage of James' versatility. At somewhere over 6'8" and north of 260 pounds, LeBron can easily play either forward position. He also has the skills to play either guard position as well. From an athletic standpoint, James causes more matchup problems when he plays the 4 than he does at any other position. As strong as he is, Lebron does not really play in the post, which negates some of his physical advantages over guards. Plus, with Shaq in the lineup there isn't much room to post up anyway. Every 4 in the League would have a hard time keeping up with James' speed and likely would not have much of a size advantage if any, which is why the Cavs should find a way for LeBron to play some minutes at the 4 position. The problem is that you can't move LeBron to the 4 unless you have someone else who can play the 3 in his place.

Whether at the 3 or the 4, the other thing the Cavs need to do is play LeBron away from the ball more. In the playoffs when things got desperate, Mike Brown put Lebron at the top of the key in an isolation and told him to find a way to get it done. It worked for about 15 minutes of one game, but it's too much to ask any player to create everything for a team like that. What made Cleveland so dangerous and good in the regular season is that James was as much of a threat on the baseline as he was in the isolations at the top of the key. You were as likely to see LeBron cutting backdoor as you were to see him take someone off the dribble. The more you move LeBron around and play him away from the ball, the further out of position a defense has to stretch in order to double team him. The unpredictability of when and where he gets the ball makes James more difficult to cover, and the increased ball handling responsibilities should make players like Mo Williams and Delonte West more dangerous. One of the problems that both Cavs' guards ran into during the playoffs was that they were used inconsistently on the ball. There were times when Williams and West didn't touch the ball for four or five possessions at a time, and when they did their job was to get the ball to James. It is difficult enough to score in the NBA, much less when your primary responsibilities do not involve playing aggressively to try and score.

Having Shaq also helps a lot in this regard. The Cavs can now throw the ball down into the low block and turn James into more of a slasher. If Cleveland can find a 3 who can shoot and they play James at the 4, how do you double Shaq? You can't come off Williams and West because they shoot too well. It would be suicide to double off of Lebron. So it's important that whoever Cleveland plays at the 3 can shoot.

No matter how bad they looked in the playofffs against Orlando, Cleveland has a shot to win it all next year. Any team with LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal and a bunch of shooter will always have a shot. But Cleveland needs to get some wings into the lineup to balance its roster and take advantage of LeBron's unique size. Otherwise, that hole between 6'2" and 6'8", where some of the prolific scorers in the League are, will be too much to overcome.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Chicago Bulls



My hometown Bulls. Chicago has been on a crazy roller coaster the last two years. Chicago went from young and talented team, to trendy dark horse pick to win the Eastern Conference, to Kobe Bryant's probable next home, to Lottery team, back to young and talented team. Somehow they managed to pull all of this off with only one major player change: adding Derrick Rose.

Unlike two years ago, when the Bulls seen as up and coming because of the sum of their young parts, this time it's all about Rose. In one short year (and a memorable seven game playoff series), Rose quickly established himself as one of the most exciting players in the League and huge part of the future of the point guard position alongside Chris Paul and Deron Williams. With Rose as the clear centerpiece, Chicago now has to figure out who fits around their young point and who might stunt his development. Look no further, Bulls. I am happy to give you the answer:

1) Trade Kirk Hinrich. The Bulls decided not to trade Hinrich last year because they wanted someone around to help Rose's transition and show him the ropes. After the playoffs last year, does anyone think that's still necessary? By all accounts, Rose is a very shy, humble kid who goes to painstaking levels to try to defer and fit in. Does Chicago really want Rose deferring to Hinrich, or anyone else for that matter? One of the things Rose needs to do to make the jump from good player to great point guard is become more aggressive. Rose has to learn when and how to demand the ball when Chicago needs a basket. Too many times last year, Bulls players forced up bad shots instead of getting the ball to Rose, which led to too much inconsistency. The best way to get a point guard to understand this is to take away the people he would otherwise defer to. That starts with Hinrich.

Even though he didn't start a lot of the season last year, Hinrich still has a lot of value around the League. There aren't many point guards with his size and ability to defend 2s. Hinrich's versatility would make him a great addition to a team like Miami to pair with Dwyane Wade. Portland has also been rumored to have interest in putting Hinrich next to Brandon Roy, and a trade for Martell Webster and Joel Przybilla would give the Bulls a long, sweet shooting 2 to pair with Rose, along with a big defensive-minded 5 to anchor their defense. Another trade partner for Hinrich that makes some sense is Phoenix. The Suns are without a clear identity at the moment, seemingly trying to build around Amar'e Stoudemire and Steve Nash, but with both players eligible for free agency in a year. The Suns are also abandoning their short-lived attempts to change into more of a halfcourt team and looking to get back to their Seven Seconds or Less philosophy. If the Suns are looking to trade Stoudemire, a package of Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas seems like a better deal for Phoenix than Andris Biedrins (who is better than Robin Lopez but still too similar), Brandan Wright and Marco Belinelli. Hinrich would serve as Nash's replacement and could also be paired with him to push the pace.

Hinrich is too good to keep off the floor completely, or to keep the ball out of his hands. Unless his presence is keeping the ball out of Rose's hands more.

2) Trade John Salmons. Salmons was a great pick-up for the Bulls last year, playing well beyond almost everyone's expectations. Sounds like a perfect time to trade him: buy low, sell high. Iknow this sounds crazy and that most Bulls fans would rather find a new home for Luol Deng after last year than Salmons. But the truth of the matter is that Deng's particular skill set is a better fit to play alongside the player Chicago hopes Derrick Rose will be. Deng is more of a catch-and-shoot slasher, where Salmons is better at creating his own shot. Plus, Deng is bigger and younger. It's easy to forget, but Deng just turned 24, while Salmons turns 30 this December.

After his playoff run, the Bulls should be able to get some real talent back for Salmons. But the trade that interests me the most would be straight-up for Jerry Stackhouse. Only $2 million of Stackhouse's $7.2 million for 2009-2010 is guaranteed, which would give Chicago a lot more flexibility to deal with Ben Gordon. Whether they try to re-sign Gordon or , Chicago would have $4-5 million less salary to push them up into the luxury tax.

By the way, I'm a late convert to letting Gordon go. It hurts me to say that as he was one of my favorite college players and has been by favorite Bull, but I don't think you can win big with a Rose-Gordon backcourt. Gordon could be traded by himself for a player (unlikely) or an expiring contract (more likely), or even packaged Tim Thomas and/or Jerome James in an early play for a big name 2010 free agent like Stoudemire or Chris Bosh. I think the Bulls have targeted and have a decent shot at Bosh, particularly if they can fill in some of the pieces around the 4 where Bosh would be. If they were able to trade Hinrich to Portland and Salmons to Dallas, Chicago would have a starting lineup that looked something like this:
  • Derrick Rose
  • Martell Webster
  • Luol Deng
  • Chris Bosh
  • Joel Przybilla
Assuming they also picked up the option on Joakim Noah as a backup big man and kept the two rookies drafted this year, Chicago would have less than $35 million in salaries committed to everyone but Bosh. Even if Bosh signs for $18 million as a starting salary, that still leaves the Bulls anywhere from $5-$8 million under the salary cap to fill out a roster that looks more balanced and talented than what Toronto has to offer. With a Rose-Deng-Bosh core locked in, the Bulls could quickly build a contender in Chicago.

3) Teach Luol Deng to play like a 4. For that Rose-Deng-Bosh core to be attractive to Bosh and as effective as it could be, Deng has to make some changes to the way he plays. To optimize the benefits he should have playing with Rose, Deng needs to play more like a pick-and-pop 4. As quick as Rose is, it is suicide as a defense to tell your point guard to fight through the screen in pick and roll situations without series help. Whenever someone sets a screen for Rose with the ball, the defense's attention has to turn to keeping him out of the lane or he's impossible to corral. Deng would constantly find himself open for a 17-footer after the screen, or would have a smaller guard sticking him if the defense was forced to switch. If he can learn how to play as the screener, Deng could easily average 20 points a game this year.

The problem is that Deng hasn't really played that role though, at least not since college when he had to play the 4 for Duke. He needs to spend the summer working on how to set screens, where to roll to find his shots after the screen, and posting up when he gets a smaller man switched on him. Sounds easy enough, right?

Well first, Vinny Del Negro has to realize that Rose and Deng are his best pick and roll option. A lot of times last year, Del Negro put Ben Gordon in bad situations by running pick and roll plays with big men who couldn't score. Knowing that the screener wasn't a threat (and that Gordon doesn't always make the best decisions with the ball), defenses often ignored the roll guy and doubled Gordon, forcing him to throw the ball over guys much taller than him and causing a lot of turnovers. Second, Deng has to embrace this role and understand how much it can benefit him. Deng complained early on last year that he didn't understand where his shots were coming from, which he says affected his shooting. The sooner he understands that playing off Rose is the key to his success in Chicago, the more likely Deng is to play like he's worth the contract the Bulls gave him. If he doesn't get it, Deng isn't talented enough from an athletic standpoint to develop much more. And if he does get his shots from elsewhere, he'll be hurting the Bulls by taking the ball out of Rose's hands. How good Deng is as a sidekick is totally up to Luol Deng.

The Bulls lucked out when they hit the Lottery and got a new direction with Derrick Rose. To get from the team they were before Rose came to Chicago to the team they need to be in order to win championships with him, the Bulls cannot be blinded by short-term gains. Despite the exciting playoff appearance last year, Chicago needs a makeover. Just because you have young and talented players does not mean they will bring out the best in Derrick Rose, or that Derrick Rose can bring out the best in them. The Bulls have hitched their wagon to Rose and need to put him with players who maximize his potential. How quickly the Bulls give Rose the keys the car will determine long it will take the team to build a real title contender.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Washington Wizards


I hate to admit it, but I kind of like the Wizards. They take bad shots, don't play a lot of defense, and have chemistry issues to the point where teammates are throwing punches at each other. I still like them for some reason. I think it's because they haven't run away from their flaws and personality quirks. If every team played the exact same way, you'd have a really boring league. The less talented teams wouldn't stand a chance because they would allow a more talented team to play exactly how they want to. The thing that all successful teams have beyond talent, though, is the ability to combine playing their style with making the other team less comfortable with the style of play. During the Seven Seconds or Less era, Phoenix did this by forcing teams to keep up with their scoring, which put a lot of players in situations where they had to shoot more than they were comfortable with. Under Larry Brown, the 76ers made teams uncomfortable by limiting the number of possessions in the game, so players felt more pressure to force shots up instead of waiting for a good one. Cleveland was also successful with this strategy under Mike Fratello for a few years. For all of their flaws, Washington never forgets who they are, which I have to admire.

There are other parts of the Wizards' game that I don't really admire all that much. One of the drawbacks from playing with so much "personality" is that it sets a bad example for some of Washington's younger players. Nick Young, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee are all very talented. They are also not near where they need to be, and it seems like at least one of the reasons is that they've taken the wrong aspects from Gilbert Arenas' example. They see Arenas being silly, but don't see him coming back into the gym at all hours of the night to get up his shots. That's the danger of a strong personality like Arenas.

The Wizards definitely tried to right the ship a little bit this week by trading away the fifth pick in the draft, Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov and Darius Songaila for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. With Foye and Miller, you don't have to worry about them being too impressionable to play with Arenas. On the downside, there this pretty much eliminates any minutes to develop any of younger perimeter players, effectively putting Nick Young, Javaris Crittenton, Mike James and probably DeShawn Stevenson on the market.

When healthy, the Wizards are a playoff team but not necessarily a contender. They just made a trade to signal that they are going for broke. Here are some things Washington should look into this summer to make the jump into the pool of contenders in the East:

1) Trade Mike James for Jared Jeffries. This is a quintessential, something for nothing (except an expiring contract) trade. James is unlikely to get minutes for either the Wizards or the Knicks, but Jeffries could help Washington out a lot with his length. Jeffries played well enough for the Wizards the first time around to get the contract he's now playing under. They already know what he can do and what he brings, which is good passing, defense and versatility from a 6'11" 4. Even though he would likely be in their rotation, I can't see New York turning down a chance to shed another $6 million before next summer.

2) Turn Randy Foye into a point. Foye actually had a decent season last year, and started to show some of the reasons Minnesota traded him for Brandon Roy. But he's already the Wizards' fourth option on offense and is a little undersized as a 2. Foye has to figure out a way to make himself invaluable to this team, and that's probably going to be as a more of a point. Most 2s won't be able to stay in front of him, and Foye handling more of a distributor's role frees Gilbert Arenas up to attack more. Plus, the Wizards need to be more prepared in case Arenas doesn't fully recover from his knee surgeries, and the best way to do that is to groom Foye to play the same role. The truth of the matter is that no matter what you say, as long as he is healthy Arenas will still handle the ball more than anyone else and serve as the team's point guard. With their shot selection and control problems, Washington will be at its best if they can run the offense through Foye more when Arenas isn't making the right decisions.

3) Auction off the remaining excess guards for a rebounding 4. Javaris Crittenton and Nick Young are on expiring contracts and have shown flashes of talent that might intrigue someone. DeShawn Stevenson is on a relatively cheap contract at $3.8 million this year and $4.1 million next. Granted, I have no idea where you get a decent backup 4 for that cheap and scoured the choices on ESPN trade checker to no avail, but the Wizards need to figure out a way to turn this excess into something they can use this year. If the Wizards and Knicks make the trade I discussed above, their rotation for next year would look something like this:

  • Arenas at the point, with Foye swinging over as his primary backup
  • Foye at the 2, backed up by Miller and/or Stevenson
  • Caron Butler at the 3, with Miller probably backing him and Foye up
  • Jamison at the 4, with Jeffries as his primary backup
  • Haywood at the 5, with Blatche or McGee as the primary backup
That lineup can score and can adjust to most matchups. Either Arenas or Foye would have a matchup they should be able to take advantage of and get into the lane, depending on how the defenses try to cover the two of them. Jamison should thrive playing off of two playmakers, as he is one of the best 4s off the ball in the entire League. Miller should be a big asset off the bench for the same reasons. Butler is among the best in the world at the 3. But outside of Haywood, they aren't that tough. Washington would need a third point guard if they trade Crittenton, but those are easier to come by than tough and serviceable big men, who have seemingly eluded the Wizards for years.

I don't think the Wizards have the assets to make more drastic changes than that without trading Jamison or Butler and blowing up the project. Since they don't seem willing to do that this year, I didn't go into those scenarios. Personally, I would have looked to trade Jamison after Orlando's run to the Finals last season. Like all professional sports leagues, NBA franchises tend to try and duplicate what other franchises do successfully. The value of a 4 who can stretch the floor is probably at an all-time high, and Washington won't get more for Jamison than they could have this summer.

The Wizards are better than people realize, but at some point that doesn't mean anything when you keep losing in the first round or two of the playoffs. Washington seems to realize that and improved the depth and versatility of its backcourt. If their young bigs can improve, and they should get at least a little better just from playing with a more talented backcourt, the Wizards might make a little noise. It's probably not likely, but not unthinkable considering Shaq's age in Cleveland, Kevin Garnett's knee problems and Orlando's loss of Hedo Turkoglu.

In reality though, all of these suggestions are just small maneuvers to help with Washington two biggest problems: injuries and maturity. If this team doesn't have the light click on upstairs, and also stay out of the training room more than they have recently, these small changes will just affect how much of a chance the Wizards have at winning next year's lottery.