Thursday, July 9, 2009

Is Shawn Marion Still Worth This Much?


Getting straight to the point, I have no idea what the hell Dallas is doing in this sign-and-trade for Shawn Marion. I don't think Marion has five productive years left, and if he does I think they are more than likely at the 4. That's Dirk Nowitzki's position, in case the Mavs forgot. I also thought Jerry Stackhouse's contract was much more valuable than overpaying Marion. Not to mention Dallas threw in Antoine Wright? I absolutely hate this trade for the Mavericks. In more detail, here is exactly why:

Dallas is built around Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry, whether Terry starts or not. While Kidd is an important piece to their puzzle, those are the three players who make the Mavs run. Dirk eats up most of the minutes at the 4, Howard at the 3, and Terry at the 2. Dirk is Dallas' primary option because he's such a difficult matchup. He's 7 feet tall, which makes him big even for the 4 position. But he's also a threat all the way out to the three-point line and off the dribble, which means he has the ability to take most 4's far away from their comfort zones on the defensive end. He can post, he can spot up, he can beat slower defenders with his handle. He is a matchup nightmare for most teams. Dallas usually goes to Howard early and often in the first and third quarters, and then he fades and tends to float as the game progresses. When Howard disappears, Terry often steps up and takes his place as one of the Mavs' primary options next to Dirk.

How does Marion help any of Dallas' strengths or take away from its weaknesses? I have no clue. He doesn't really help Terry or Dirk much. He could help Howard some by moving him to the 2, but there's not much about the way Howard plays that would be all that much more effective at the 2 than it is at the 3. Howard attacks for five minutes at a time, then disappears. That's not going to change by getting someone else to play off the ball, it will only change by adding someone else who can play on the ball and distribute the ball to keep Howard engaged. Not exactly what you get Shawn Marion for.

Marion's best position in his career has been the 4 because he rebounds extremely well and has huge athletic advantages over most 4's. The advantages Marion had over most 3's were much greater than the size advantages he gave up. But where is Marion going to play for Dallas? After signing Marcin Gortat to play the 5, most of Marion's minutes will have to come at the 3 where I don't think Marion holds much of an advantage anymore. He's never been all that proficient off the dribble, and at 6'8" isn't really all that imposing anyway. So you have a player in Marion whose career success has been predicated on his incredible athleticism. You trade for him to play a position where he doesn't have the same athletic advantages, and you sign him for 5 years when his athleticism seems to be waning? Doesn't make sense.

The only way playing Marion at the 3 makes the Mavs any better is if you pay Howard more minutes at the 2. Howard can probably give you spot minutes in the backcourt, but isn't exactly scary there and means that either Kidd or Terry has to sit a little more. Howard is not aggressive or consistent enough for that move to make a lot of sense.

A lineup with Howard and Marion on the wings does allow for Dallas to match up better against the changes made by the Lakers and Spurs. The Mavs are right in that Howard and Wright would not have fared well against Manu Ginobli and Richard Jefferson, or Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest. But Dallas overpaid by a lot for an aging player whose best position isn't where he's now going to be playing. The Mavs gave up an extremely valuable piece in Jerry Stackhouse's contract just for the right to sign a player who will not be effective for five years to a five-year deal. In a League where everyone seems to be trying to cut costs, Stackhouse had one of the more attractive contracts available. And the value of Stackhouse's contract is that he was attractive to every team looking to cut payroll for next year or to balance out their roster. Teams like Charlotte (Gerald Wallace or Raja Bell), Chicago (John Salmons), New Orleans (James Posey), and Washington (DeShawn Stevenson and Andray Blatche combo) all become viable.

While Marion is still an above-average player, that's at the 4 and not the 3. At the 3, he's pretty much middle of the pack. I don't think this makes Dallas all that much better in the short term. It doesn't seem to add up.

2 comments:

  1. I agree with your cookie cutter argument. Marion is going to be more of a pain in the ass than he's worth. No homo.

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  2. Now that Gortat isn't coming and the Mavs have their mid-level available again, this trade might work out better than it first appeared. I am still not a big fan, but it could work if the Mavs play Dirk at the 5 and Marion at the 4 for any length of time. That's not a full-time solution, but it does make them much more dangerous. They can also sign someone like Matt Barnes to play the 2, who I think would really help Dallas by adding a shooter and natural wing.

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