Tuesday, August 4, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Milwaukee Bucks



Having started this process late, I didn't get to Milwaukee until their summer makeover was mostly complete. It's now the beginning of August and the Bucks have already traded away their best player from last year (Richard Jefferson), let their best young talent go without anything in return (Charlie Villanueva), and are on the verge of letting their best value player (Ramon Sessions) leave without any return. As a small market team, many of the Bucks' moves have been financially based. They couldn't afford to keep Jefferson, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut, then pay young players like Villanueva and Sessions their market value. And with the Bucks' record, it wouldn't have made much sense anyway. But realizing what you're doing isn't working isn't enough. Milwaukee now needs to come up with a plan that actually will work and make them competitive.

Small market teams can't afford to make the same mistakes that other teams do. Teams like Milwaukee cannot attract the types of free agents who can alter a franchise's identity without severely overpaying. They can't make wrong decisions on players who don't fit their style of play because it is too costly to get rid of them. Milwaukee has committed to a certain philosophy with Scott Skiles, but doesn't have the players to fit that style. Here's a couple of suggestions of how to make that happen and get the Bucks closer to competing for the playoffs consistently:

1) Trade Charlie Bell and Kurt Thomas.

Based on his playing and coaching history, Skiles likes to play a lot of small ball and have multiple players who can create off the pick and roll create havoc. Skiles is not afraid to give up all sorts of physical advantages if he can play a smart, gritty team. It's the same as he was when he played.

Milwaukee's major problem with this philosophy is that they don't really have players who fit that mold. With the amount Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd are making this season and next, it makes more sense to get the right types of players around them and increase their respective values rather than trading them now. Bell and Thomas actually aren't bad fits, but as solid veterans on expiring contracts, they represent the Bucks' best chances to upgrade their roster.

A number of teams have committed to making a run this year and may be willing to give up on some young talent for veteran help. Washington is a good example of a team who might be willing to part with somewhat duplicative young talent (Andray Blatche) for a veteran big man like Thomas. Charlie Bell is versatile enough to make a big difference off the bench at both guard spots for playoff contenders like the Lakers (in a package deal for Jordan Farmar), the Jazz (for CJ Miles if he's not going to be in the rotation), the Rockets (for Brian Cook and a draft pick). Whoever and whatever picks Milwaukee can trade for the two is likely to be better than what the Bucks could get for $7.6 million of cap space next summer. Francisco Elson and Malik Allen also fit into this category, but would probably bring back much less. But if they can be traded for some young potential, the Bucks should pull the trigger.

2) Move Michael Redd to the 3 and Joe Alexander to the 4.

I know that Redd is not a 3 and Alexander is not a 4. But without the talent to compete, Milwaukee has to create chaos by playing small and awkward. This is a Skiles specialty. When he coached the Bulls, Skiles often played Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon and Chris Duhon together for large chunks of time in the 4th quarter with either Luol Deng or Andres Nocioni at the 4. They spaced the floor, passed well and rotated faster on defense than most teams. They couldn't rebound, but at least this gave the Bulls a shot. And these unconventional lineups took a mediocre team much deeper in the playoffs than they should have gone on talent alone.

If the Bucks get some more help at the 1, they could cause some of the same matchup difficulties. Alexander is quick athletic enough to be a pain in the ass for most 4's, and it masks his basketball IQ issues by moving him further from ballhandling duties. Redd isn't all that creative off the dribble for a 2, but he's probably above average at the 3 and a pain in the ass for most 3s to chase around. Neither will be able to defend their positions very well, but it's not like they were great defenders last year either. And Skiles is pretty good at hiding below average defenders. He was able to do it with Ben Gordon for years.

At a minimum, playing Redd at the 3 and Alexander at the 4 should increase each player's offensive output (and as a consequence their trade value). It is unlikely that either fits into Skiles' ultimate plans or can get the team over the hump. So while Milwaukee tries to find players who can get them to the playoffs, they need to maximize the value of their current assets. This would do that better than just rolling the ball out and letting these two play.

3) Run the offense through Andrew Bogut at the high post.

Right now, the Bucks don't have enough ball handlers to play the way Skiles' teams have in the past. Luke Ridnour and Charlie Bell probably fit the bill, and it's hard to name anyone else. Brandon Jennings probably isn't ready and will probably benefit from the teaching on the bench more than playing through his mistakes right now. As quick as he is, Jennings would probably be able to compensate for his mistakes and have more success than he should based on where he is in his development. But for the Bucks to turn the corner, Jennings has to be good and not just lucky. He needs to learn the game first.

So how do the Bucks get the most out of who they currently have? Bogut has to become a great passer. In the same way that Redd and Alexander have the ability to cause matchup problems, Bogut has the ability to draw defenders away from the basket to open up attacking lanes. With everyone except for Redd, you can go under screens and clog the lane against Milwaukee. The guards aren't really threats to shoot long jumpers off the dribble and the bigs aren't really huge threats to pop. The only real threat is the roll. Getting the ball to Bogut at the high post alleviates that problem somewhat by placing everyone in a position where they are a threat to score. The guards can spot up more where they are more apt to catch and shoot, and the bigs start their plays closer to their scoring range.

To take full advantage of their coaching choice, Milwaukee needs to become a few things. They need to become tougher, they need to become smarter as a team, and they need to become better shooters. The Bucks don't have the salary cap space to get it done and Milwaukee isn't really attractive to free agents anyway. Until they can get rid of some of their bloated contracts and get players who can fit their philosophy, the Bucks should play small to get the most out of the talent they already have. Milwaukee also has to feature its center and play to his finesse strengths, because at $10 million per year for the next five years, he's going to be their centerpiece for a long time.

Most importantly though, Milwaukee has to pick a plan and stay the course. If they keep changing the plan, they will never get to a point where any plan can work.

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