Showing posts with label Southeast Division. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Southeast Division. Show all posts

Saturday, June 27, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Washington Wizards


I hate to admit it, but I kind of like the Wizards. They take bad shots, don't play a lot of defense, and have chemistry issues to the point where teammates are throwing punches at each other. I still like them for some reason. I think it's because they haven't run away from their flaws and personality quirks. If every team played the exact same way, you'd have a really boring league. The less talented teams wouldn't stand a chance because they would allow a more talented team to play exactly how they want to. The thing that all successful teams have beyond talent, though, is the ability to combine playing their style with making the other team less comfortable with the style of play. During the Seven Seconds or Less era, Phoenix did this by forcing teams to keep up with their scoring, which put a lot of players in situations where they had to shoot more than they were comfortable with. Under Larry Brown, the 76ers made teams uncomfortable by limiting the number of possessions in the game, so players felt more pressure to force shots up instead of waiting for a good one. Cleveland was also successful with this strategy under Mike Fratello for a few years. For all of their flaws, Washington never forgets who they are, which I have to admire.

There are other parts of the Wizards' game that I don't really admire all that much. One of the drawbacks from playing with so much "personality" is that it sets a bad example for some of Washington's younger players. Nick Young, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee are all very talented. They are also not near where they need to be, and it seems like at least one of the reasons is that they've taken the wrong aspects from Gilbert Arenas' example. They see Arenas being silly, but don't see him coming back into the gym at all hours of the night to get up his shots. That's the danger of a strong personality like Arenas.

The Wizards definitely tried to right the ship a little bit this week by trading away the fifth pick in the draft, Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov and Darius Songaila for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. With Foye and Miller, you don't have to worry about them being too impressionable to play with Arenas. On the downside, there this pretty much eliminates any minutes to develop any of younger perimeter players, effectively putting Nick Young, Javaris Crittenton, Mike James and probably DeShawn Stevenson on the market.

When healthy, the Wizards are a playoff team but not necessarily a contender. They just made a trade to signal that they are going for broke. Here are some things Washington should look into this summer to make the jump into the pool of contenders in the East:

1) Trade Mike James for Jared Jeffries. This is a quintessential, something for nothing (except an expiring contract) trade. James is unlikely to get minutes for either the Wizards or the Knicks, but Jeffries could help Washington out a lot with his length. Jeffries played well enough for the Wizards the first time around to get the contract he's now playing under. They already know what he can do and what he brings, which is good passing, defense and versatility from a 6'11" 4. Even though he would likely be in their rotation, I can't see New York turning down a chance to shed another $6 million before next summer.

2) Turn Randy Foye into a point. Foye actually had a decent season last year, and started to show some of the reasons Minnesota traded him for Brandon Roy. But he's already the Wizards' fourth option on offense and is a little undersized as a 2. Foye has to figure out a way to make himself invaluable to this team, and that's probably going to be as a more of a point. Most 2s won't be able to stay in front of him, and Foye handling more of a distributor's role frees Gilbert Arenas up to attack more. Plus, the Wizards need to be more prepared in case Arenas doesn't fully recover from his knee surgeries, and the best way to do that is to groom Foye to play the same role. The truth of the matter is that no matter what you say, as long as he is healthy Arenas will still handle the ball more than anyone else and serve as the team's point guard. With their shot selection and control problems, Washington will be at its best if they can run the offense through Foye more when Arenas isn't making the right decisions.

3) Auction off the remaining excess guards for a rebounding 4. Javaris Crittenton and Nick Young are on expiring contracts and have shown flashes of talent that might intrigue someone. DeShawn Stevenson is on a relatively cheap contract at $3.8 million this year and $4.1 million next. Granted, I have no idea where you get a decent backup 4 for that cheap and scoured the choices on ESPN trade checker to no avail, but the Wizards need to figure out a way to turn this excess into something they can use this year. If the Wizards and Knicks make the trade I discussed above, their rotation for next year would look something like this:

  • Arenas at the point, with Foye swinging over as his primary backup
  • Foye at the 2, backed up by Miller and/or Stevenson
  • Caron Butler at the 3, with Miller probably backing him and Foye up
  • Jamison at the 4, with Jeffries as his primary backup
  • Haywood at the 5, with Blatche or McGee as the primary backup
That lineup can score and can adjust to most matchups. Either Arenas or Foye would have a matchup they should be able to take advantage of and get into the lane, depending on how the defenses try to cover the two of them. Jamison should thrive playing off of two playmakers, as he is one of the best 4s off the ball in the entire League. Miller should be a big asset off the bench for the same reasons. Butler is among the best in the world at the 3. But outside of Haywood, they aren't that tough. Washington would need a third point guard if they trade Crittenton, but those are easier to come by than tough and serviceable big men, who have seemingly eluded the Wizards for years.

I don't think the Wizards have the assets to make more drastic changes than that without trading Jamison or Butler and blowing up the project. Since they don't seem willing to do that this year, I didn't go into those scenarios. Personally, I would have looked to trade Jamison after Orlando's run to the Finals last season. Like all professional sports leagues, NBA franchises tend to try and duplicate what other franchises do successfully. The value of a 4 who can stretch the floor is probably at an all-time high, and Washington won't get more for Jamison than they could have this summer.

The Wizards are better than people realize, but at some point that doesn't mean anything when you keep losing in the first round or two of the playoffs. Washington seems to realize that and improved the depth and versatility of its backcourt. If their young bigs can improve, and they should get at least a little better just from playing with a more talented backcourt, the Wizards might make a little noise. It's probably not likely, but not unthinkable considering Shaq's age in Cleveland, Kevin Garnett's knee problems and Orlando's loss of Hedo Turkoglu.

In reality though, all of these suggestions are just small maneuvers to help with Washington two biggest problems: injuries and maturity. If this team doesn't have the light click on upstairs, and also stay out of the training room more than they have recently, these small changes will just affect how much of a chance the Wizards have at winning next year's lottery.


What they need to do this summer: Orlando Magic


Orlando surprised a lot of people this year (myself included) by knocking off Cleveland and making the NBA Finals. They capitalized on a quirky lineup starting two 6'10" small forwards and causing matchup problems that scrambled defenses and made the Magic extremely dangerous from 3. Last year's Magic team won't have the chance to build on their success though, since Orlando traded its rookie 2-guard Courtney Lee, mid-season point guard pickup Rafer Alston and Tony Battie to New Jersey for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson. Now, Hedo Turkoglu has opted out of his contract and seems unlikely to return.

As I've already written, I'm not a big fan of the Carter trade for Orlando. What made the Magic special and a matchup nightmare last year was that they were as unconventional as any team in the NBA. They started four guys who could shoot the 3, two of whom were 6'10", and a dominant athlete in Dwight Howard at the 5. As talented as Vince Carter is (and I think a lot of people forget sometimes), I've always thought it was more important for Orlando to be different than it was for them to be talented. But the trade has been made and can't be taken back now. So here's what Orlando needs to do to stay among the NBA elite:

1) Trade Mickael Pietrus for a bigger 3. The thing Orlando will miss most with Turkoglu gone is the fact that he initiated a lot of their offense. As a 6'10" 3, he could see over most people guarding him. Turkoglu's ability to handle the ball at his sized caused defenses to help off of shooters more than I think Orlando realized. The reason this is important is because if you start Carter and Pietrus, neither will have a huge size advantage. Carter would have an advantage over most 2s, but because he and Pietrus are essentially the same size, defenses could cross their 3s onto Carter if he proved to be too big for their 2s, negating Orlando's mismatch. A trade of Pietrus to Portland for Travis Outlaw and Nicolas Batum would make a lot of sense for both teams. It would give Portland the lockdown defender Nate McMillan covets, and it would give Orlando a big 3 to recreate some of the matchup problems the Magic thrive on. A trade for Tayshaun Prince, who is rumored to be available, would work similar reasons.

2) Develop Dwight Howard's lower body. Most people who see him would readily agree that Dwight Howard is a beast. As soon as they see his shoulders, people realize how massive he is. Shoulders don't help you get position on the block in the NBA though, your base does. As big and strong as Dwight Howard is up top, where he one of the League's strongest, his legs are not as elite. Shaq, Yao Ming, Kendrick Perkins, and even Andrew Bynum to a certain extent possess comparable leg strength and the ability to push Howard from his comfort zone on the block. That sucks for Magic fans, as these are the teams Orlando will probably have to get through to win a title. All through the playoffs, everyone talked about how Howard needed to develop a go-to move to become the best center in the game. Well that's only true if Howard can't overpower everyone else first. If I were the Magic, I would prefer that Howard spent the summer working on where he catches the ball instead of what he does with it once he has it. As the series with Boston showed, Howard is a lot less effective if you can make him catch the ball just two or three feet further out than he originally wanted.

3) Use Gortat in a sign-and-trade for a real 4. This sounds really strange and contradictory coming from me considering how much I think Orlando needs to keep its unorthodox lineups, but I promise there's some logic behind this. First, with so much money and cap space tied up in starters Jameer Nelson ($6-8 million per season), Vince Carter ($16-18 million per), Rashard Lewis ($18-23 million per) and Dwight Howard ($15-18 million per), the Magic cannot afford to pay market value for a backup 5. That money would be much better spent on someone who can play the 4 and the 5, which increases Orlando's versatility. Despite having Howard, the Magic are not a particularly good rebounding team. Adding someone who can back up Howard and also swing down to play the 4 also gives Orlando the option of moving Rashard Lewis down to the 3, which will also create mismatches. Gortat played pretty well in the playoffs and will probably have a lot of suitors. Big men usually do. Maybe a team like Miami, who needs to make space for Michael Beasley to become a bigger factor, would be willing to trade Udonis Haslem for a center and balance out its roster more. Oklahoma City might also be a good fit and could offer Nick Collison.

It took Orlando nearly 15 years to get back to the Finals after Shaq and Penny led the team there in 1995. The Magic had a tall ballhandler who created a lot of mismatches and chaos, and a dominant young big man down low. Last time the big man left, this time its the ballhandler. Unless the Magic can figure out another way to create mismatches, like the ideas above, I would expect them to come back to the pack in the East.

What they need to do this summer: Miami Heat


It seems like a long time since Miami won the NBA title. Maybe it's just me, but I always feel like Dwyane Wade is much closer to 30 than his actual age: 27. Teams with stars on Wade's level don't usually fall apart and only win 15 games unless that star is on a serious decline. But the Heat did, which put them in the Lottery where they picked up Michael Beasley. Despite the fact that Miami rebounded last year and made the playoffs, it doesn't seem like Beasley has really fit into what Miami wants to do. One of Miami's favorite veterans, Udonis Haslem, plays the 4. Beasley wasn't ready or willing to defend at the 3. And Beasley's laid back personality doesn't seem a good fit on a team built by Pat Riley. Maybe it's not his fault though; apparently he wasn't asked to play any defense during his AAU years.

Don't get me wrong, it's not like Miami's situation is doom and gloom. First, Wade and Beasley are two of the most talented players in the entire League. Second, the Heat have NOBODY under guaranteed contract in 2010-2011, so they can easily blow up whatever isn't working and will be a major player in the free agent market after next season or in trades this season for teams looking to drop payroll commitments. Miami also picked up a nice piece in the second round of last year's draft in Mario Chalmers. But convince Wade to stay and to build this team into a contender, Miami has its work cut out. Here are some good initial steps:

1) Trade Beasley for a big man. For all the reasons above, I don't think Beasley and Wade will ever fit together as the building blocks for the Heat. As much as I love Beasley's talent, I don't think he has the tempermant or drive to adjust to being a secondary star. And as long as Wade is in Miami, that's what Beasley will be. It's not like other teams have forgotten how talented Beasley is though, so Miami should be able to get a lot for him. Emeka Okafor is one example of a player I think would work well with Wade and can probably be had for Beasley and filler. I don't know if either Miami or Charlotte could turn a deal built around those two players down. It would give the Bobcats a legitimate star talent to build around, and it would give the a defender and shot blocker to replace what Alonzo Mourning provided for years.

2) Trade Haslem for a versatile guard. Wade has said in years past that he doesn't want to play the point. But as young as the Heat were last year, Wade had to take on a lot of point guard responsibilities. Instead of just worrying about his job, he had to get people into the right place, figure out who should have the ball and who shouldn't, and generally manage the team from the floor. It's too draining to be a top-flight scorer and manage everyone else's expectations also. By asking Wade to be both its scorer and de-facto point, Wade's two roles often conflicted with one another. What does this have to do with Haslem? Well, Haslem is the Heat's other valuable trade chip. Not only does he have an expiring contract, but he's also a solid leader and 4 who can step out and make a shot. As we saw with Orlando this past postseason (and have heard ad nauseum since), having a big man who can space the floor is essential against defenses in the playoffs. You need your big men to be threats so your stars have enough room to drive. For Miami at this point though, it is more important that they let Wade loose and allow him to attack on every time offense instead of worrying about getting everyone else involved. Would Chicago bite on Haslem and Dorell Wright for Kirk Hinrich, or something similar? (And if the Heat think they can get that point from somewhere else, they could also try to get a young talent to put with Wade like Wilson Chandler from the Knicks by taking on Jared Jeffries' contract. That 2-for-1 works on the ESPN trade checker.)

3) Don't do anything else to screw up cap space for next year. Even with the trades above, Miami is in position to be a huge player in 2010 free agency. For the sake of argument, let's say that the Heat re-signed Jamario Moon for $3 million a year, traded Beasley and James Jones for Okafor, then traded Haslem and Dorell Wright for Hinrich. Going into 2010-2011, they would have Hinrich at the 1 ($9 million), Wade at the 2 (around $20 million), Moon at the 3 ($3 million), and Okafor at the 5 ($11.5 million). I think Chris Bosh would be seriously interested. That's only $43 million and a much more attractive lineup than Bosh has with him in Toronto.

Wade may not be the 30 I think he is, but he's not far from it. With the way he plays, there's even more of a need for Miami to go for it now. It's doubtful Miami would want to put that much money into their starting lineup with no bench to speak of, but at a minimum it's an interesting blueprint for Heat fans to dream about.

Friday, June 26, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Charlotte Bobcats


Most people have considered the Bobcats a young, up and coming team for a few years now. They haven't been able to get over the hump and into the playoffs, though. The last two or three years, Charlotte has been stuck in purgatory: not good enough to compete with the big boys, and not bad enough to get a difference maker at the top of the draft. So what do you do if you have good young players, but no superstars to make you relevant in the postseason?

1)Trade Raja Bell. Bell is Charlotte's only player who has a contract expiring in 2010, which means the Bobcats might be able to find a team desperate to save money or get as far under the cap as possible next year. Yes, Larry Brown values the presence of veterans like Bell. But Charlotte doesn't need good guys nearly as much as they need great players. While they are at it, Charlotte should see what they can get for Gerald Wallace, and Emeka Okafor. It's not that I don't like these guys, it's that they aren't talented enough to carry a team, and that's what they would have to do for the Bobcats. For other teams who are closer to the top, these players could make a big difference though, and they might be worth a lot in a trade. Once Okafor's base-year status expires, wouldn't it make sense for Charlotte and Miami to talk about trading him for Michael Beasley if the rumors about Riley not being a big fan are true? Or maybe to the Hawks for Josh Smith? And what about Raja Bell to New Orleans for Julian Wright and Rasual Butler? Would a team like the Knicks give you Wilson Chandler for Bell and Alexis Ajinca to get rid of Jared Jeffries contract? I don't really have many good ideas for how to trade Gerald Wallace, but the point is that Charlotte does have some guys other people want. Packaged right, the Bobcats should see if they can get a talented player on his rookie contract who hasn't yet met expectations.

2) Change the philosophy. If you have middle of the road talent, you need to at least have a philosophy that can make those players appear better. Phoenix did this a little bit with Shawn Marion, who isn't a middle of the road talent but was made better by the Phoenix system. At the 3, Shawn Marion had a flawed shot, an average handle, and would have relied more on his elite athleticism than his skills. As a 4 though, Marion is an even more elite athlete, and his ability to stretch the floor by knocking down shots is a plus, not the minus it was as a three. Phoenix was able to get away with playing Marion out of position because he's a very good defender and rebounder. If they can't figure out a way to get more talent, they have to find a way to get more out of what they have. Make chicken salad out of chicken ... Boris Diaw is another example from the Suns, and part of the reason I suggested shopping Okafor above. The easiest way for Charlotte to change their philosophy is to get the ball to Diaw, who is one of the best passers from the post in the League. If Charlotte can run more of its offense through Diaw (which is only possible with a bigger scoring threat at the other big man), the floor opens up and Charlotte becomes a matchup nightmare for teams with slower 5s.

3) Start Ray Felton at the 2 next to DJ Augustin. Felton is not a full-time 2. I understand that and don't even think he's a full-time starter. But again, Charlotte needs to make its opponents match up to them instead of always matching up to their opponents. While a Felton-Augustin backcourt is undersized, it is also very quick, and one of them is going to annoy whatever 2 has to chase him around. If Charlotte can't get a wing who is talented enough to beat other wings off the dribble, they should manufacture that same

So in an ideal world, how would Charlotte look next season? Smaller and more unpredictable. They have a nice chip in DJ Augustin who can get into the paint with ease. Now they need a couple of other guys who can do the same. They also need to take more risks. For example, if Charlotte could talk Miami into the Okafor-Beasley trade I mentioned above and New York into the Bell/
Alexis Ajinca-Chandler/Jeffries deal, their starting lineup could look something like this:
  • Augustin
  • Felton or Henderson
  • Chandler
  • Beasley
  • Diaw
That lineup has a lot more potential to develop into something than the one they have now. Or at least I'd be a lot more willing to buy a ticket to see that team, which is another huge problem for the Bobcats. Go big or go home Charlotte. Being on the verge of the playoffs doesn't do much for me, and developing at a snail's pace does even less. You're in NASCAR country, you should know what Ricky Bobby's dad, Reese Bobby says: "if you ain't first, you're last."

What they need to do this summer: Atlanta Hawks


For the first time probably since the Dominique Wilkins-Danny Manning trade, the Hawks are coming off two consecutive playoffs seasons. After years and years of adding young talent, it finally looks like some of those players are panning out and turning the Hawks into a perennial playoff contender. But now comes the hard part, where the Hawks have to go from just being in the playoffs to being a threat to actually win in the playoffs.

Actually Atlanta made a lot of progress this year, actually getting home court and winning their first series. And their talent level isn't that far off from some of the other contenders, but their play is. They need a lot of development from their core players and to make some smart moves this off-season. If they do the following, they should be able to make another jump next year:

1) Josh Smith needs to become a power forward. Smith has the athletic ability to compete at the 3, but I guarantee you every Atlanta opponent starts smiling when he tries to play like one. Sure he can knock down some shots, but does he really scare you when he settles for jumpers? Nothing pisses you off when you watch the Hawks more than the teases of star talent Smith displays when he aggressively attacks sprinkled in between slow isolations and jump shots without even one dribble. Smith needs to take a serious look in the mirror this summer and finally realize that if the ball comes to rest on offense in his hands, something went terribly wrong. The ball needs to be in the hands of Atlanta's guards until they want Smith to do something with it. Smith's game needs to be predicated on aggression, and the jumpshots should only be a counter when teams start to sag and take away the paint. I'm not putting all of the blame on him though. Both the guards and coaching staff need to do a better job of putting Smith in positions to succeed. If I had to guess, I would imagine this is what Smith and Woodson are always fighting about, so it's not that Woodson isn't trying. He isn't succeeding though, and it shows the deeper you get into the playoffs. Whoever is working out with Smith this summer needs to take the ball out of his hands and just teach him how to play off of a pick and roll. Everyone in the Hawks' organization would be much happier if he could do that. Probably won't happen, but Atlanta needs it to make the jump.

2) Define the guard's roles. The Hawks just picked up Jamal Crawford for practically nothing, which is great from a talent standpoint but not necessarily from a chemistry point of view. Crawford has a terrible reputation of being selfish which I don't entirely agree with, but he does take a lot of bad shots. I've always thought that Crawford's bigger problem is that he doesn't have a high basketball IQ and often tries too hard to do what the coach wants instead of taking what the defense gives him. Larry Brown used to say similar things about Crawford, and I don't think Brown is very fond of players who are as selfish as Crawford's reputation suggests. That being said, after this many years Crawford needs a clear directive that he shouldn't be shooting every time down. I would imagine that Crawford and Johnson will share ball handling duties early on, which is dangerous because Crawford will alternate between being too aggressive and too passive. Now that you've traded for him, you have to live with him. And the only way to live with Crawford is to tell him he's the point or tell him he's the 2. He can't play in between. If you see Crawford as your point, pick up the pace and be prepared for some great plays and some headache inducing turnovers. If you aren't sure, tell Crawford to learn how to catch and shoot (amazingly, when he was with the Bulls Crawford said he never learned how to do that. I guess it's not that amazing if you aren't a fan, but I think it's incredible NBA level talent skipped over such a fundamental thing). Jeff Teague is a pretty good pick up considering where they drafted, but he probably isn't ready to step in and play big minutes just yet. He needs to understand what he's doing as soon as possible though, because they will need him this year. Atlanta is thin in the backcourt unless they improbably bring back Mike Bibby.

3) Turn Marvin Williams into a point forward. Marvin Williams is a huge talent and a mismatch against most 3s. Williams is also content scoring 15 instead of trying to destroy his opponent every time out. The Hawks need to tell Williams that he is going to have the ball in his hands early and often, and is responsible for getting into the lane to get everyone else going. Where Williams is lacking in terms of a killer instinct, Atlanta needs to force feed him. He needs to go into the season expecting and demanding the ball consistently, which is a big adjustment for him personality-wise. But the Hawks need another ball handler who can cause mismatches other than Johnson, and it won't be Crawford consistently and you don't want Smith to audition for that role. It has to be Williams for this team to threaten Cleveland and Orlando.

4) Re-sign Zaza Pachulia and try to steal another big man. Unlike most teams who are just making the playoffs but trying to make the jump to contender, the Hawks already have the versatility to play a lot of different ways. They can play Johnson, Williams, and Smith at the 2-3-4, they can play Johnson at the 3 with either Smith or Williams at the 4, or they can play Al Horford at the 4 and match up with some of the bigger lineups around the League. But they need a big who can give them the flexibility to pull off all of these different combinations. They need a 5 who can step away from the basket and give Johnson or Williams room to post up a small wing. They also need a big who can bang down low and compete with Dwight Howard, Kendrick Perkins and Shaq. Pachulia did a pretty good job last year and I don't think they should let him go for free. But they need another big to add to this rotation. Maybe this would be a good home for the Polish Hammer, Marcin Gortat.

Atlanta has some serious mental question marks with Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Jamal Crawford, but they also have some serious talent too. This is the wrong time for them to be satisfied with their small steps toward contending. They need Mike Woodson and the front office to step up now and make some of these changes I recommended, or they need them to step out of the way before it's too late.