Thursday, June 25, 2009

The Vince Carter, Orlando - New Jersey trade


New Jersey just traded Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson to Orlando for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Tony Battie. Vince Carter is the biggest name in the trade, and there used to be a time when you could judge trades based on who got the best player. That's not the case anymore, as players cannot adapt to differing styles and roles as easily. Now, players are used to either having the ball or playing off the ball, and aren't really able to go from one to the other.

I think Vince Carter is one of those players, and especially going to a quirky team like Orlando. It's even harder for a player like Carter to adjust to playing off the ball more (as he will likely be asked to do) at his advanced age and with some of the leg injuries he's had over the years. Not to mention, Vince only goes to the hole to create for himself. He's not going to turn into a great drive and kick guy all of the sudden, which is the bread and butter of the Magic offense.

Additionally, most people feel this trade takes away Orlando's ability to re-sign Hedo Turkoglu, who was a huge part of Orlando's success in the playoffs. One of the major keys to Orlando's success was the matchup issues they caused starting Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. Both are 6'10" and too quick for most power forwards. Where one usually had a size disadvantage on the boards, the other could at least partially make up for that by having a size advantage over 3s. Teams usually put 3s on Turkoglu and 4s on Lewis. With his size and ball handling ability, Turkoglu was also able to get some intermediate post opportunities.

If you start Vince at the 3, he doesn't have a size advantage over most 3s. One of the reasons why Orlando got so many 3s was because of Turkoglu's size. But with Vince at the 3, there is less reason to double. If you start Vince at the 2, you have to start Mikael Pietrus at the 3, which really weakens your bench. No Battie, no Alston and no Pietrus off the bench means the Magic are extremely thin. Not to mention, Turkoglu was Orlando's primary ball handler when Jameer Nelson was off the floor. Now you have a team that is about the same from a talent standpoint, but gave up a lot in terms of the awkward matchups it caused, which got Orlando a lot of free shots. If you don't have to come off a shooter to stop Vince, or if he can't get the ball to a shooter when that happens, Orlando loses a lot of opportunities -- and a lot more than just the points and assists Turkoglu gave them.

New Jersey, on the other hand, got depth and younger. Courtney Lee was a good rookie and is considerably younger than Carter. Rafer Alston gives the Nets a solid backup point if they choose to keep him, and can also play alongside Devin Harris if you need Harris to assume more of a scoring role. Tony Battie is serviceable and can teach the Nets' big men some professionalism. And New Jersey got a big contract off the books when they aren't really going anywhere. While Lee is not an upgrade in terms of talent, he is a much better fit to develop with Harris and Brook Lopez when they are ready to compete for a title.

All told, I think I like this trade for New Jersey, but not nearly as much for Orlando. I know I'm probably in the minority because people are drawn to stars. In this case, I don't think the star is going to translate into wins.

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