Saturday, June 27, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Washington Wizards


I hate to admit it, but I kind of like the Wizards. They take bad shots, don't play a lot of defense, and have chemistry issues to the point where teammates are throwing punches at each other. I still like them for some reason. I think it's because they haven't run away from their flaws and personality quirks. If every team played the exact same way, you'd have a really boring league. The less talented teams wouldn't stand a chance because they would allow a more talented team to play exactly how they want to. The thing that all successful teams have beyond talent, though, is the ability to combine playing their style with making the other team less comfortable with the style of play. During the Seven Seconds or Less era, Phoenix did this by forcing teams to keep up with their scoring, which put a lot of players in situations where they had to shoot more than they were comfortable with. Under Larry Brown, the 76ers made teams uncomfortable by limiting the number of possessions in the game, so players felt more pressure to force shots up instead of waiting for a good one. Cleveland was also successful with this strategy under Mike Fratello for a few years. For all of their flaws, Washington never forgets who they are, which I have to admire.

There are other parts of the Wizards' game that I don't really admire all that much. One of the drawbacks from playing with so much "personality" is that it sets a bad example for some of Washington's younger players. Nick Young, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee are all very talented. They are also not near where they need to be, and it seems like at least one of the reasons is that they've taken the wrong aspects from Gilbert Arenas' example. They see Arenas being silly, but don't see him coming back into the gym at all hours of the night to get up his shots. That's the danger of a strong personality like Arenas.

The Wizards definitely tried to right the ship a little bit this week by trading away the fifth pick in the draft, Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov and Darius Songaila for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. With Foye and Miller, you don't have to worry about them being too impressionable to play with Arenas. On the downside, there this pretty much eliminates any minutes to develop any of younger perimeter players, effectively putting Nick Young, Javaris Crittenton, Mike James and probably DeShawn Stevenson on the market.

When healthy, the Wizards are a playoff team but not necessarily a contender. They just made a trade to signal that they are going for broke. Here are some things Washington should look into this summer to make the jump into the pool of contenders in the East:

1) Trade Mike James for Jared Jeffries. This is a quintessential, something for nothing (except an expiring contract) trade. James is unlikely to get minutes for either the Wizards or the Knicks, but Jeffries could help Washington out a lot with his length. Jeffries played well enough for the Wizards the first time around to get the contract he's now playing under. They already know what he can do and what he brings, which is good passing, defense and versatility from a 6'11" 4. Even though he would likely be in their rotation, I can't see New York turning down a chance to shed another $6 million before next summer.

2) Turn Randy Foye into a point. Foye actually had a decent season last year, and started to show some of the reasons Minnesota traded him for Brandon Roy. But he's already the Wizards' fourth option on offense and is a little undersized as a 2. Foye has to figure out a way to make himself invaluable to this team, and that's probably going to be as a more of a point. Most 2s won't be able to stay in front of him, and Foye handling more of a distributor's role frees Gilbert Arenas up to attack more. Plus, the Wizards need to be more prepared in case Arenas doesn't fully recover from his knee surgeries, and the best way to do that is to groom Foye to play the same role. The truth of the matter is that no matter what you say, as long as he is healthy Arenas will still handle the ball more than anyone else and serve as the team's point guard. With their shot selection and control problems, Washington will be at its best if they can run the offense through Foye more when Arenas isn't making the right decisions.

3) Auction off the remaining excess guards for a rebounding 4. Javaris Crittenton and Nick Young are on expiring contracts and have shown flashes of talent that might intrigue someone. DeShawn Stevenson is on a relatively cheap contract at $3.8 million this year and $4.1 million next. Granted, I have no idea where you get a decent backup 4 for that cheap and scoured the choices on ESPN trade checker to no avail, but the Wizards need to figure out a way to turn this excess into something they can use this year. If the Wizards and Knicks make the trade I discussed above, their rotation for next year would look something like this:

  • Arenas at the point, with Foye swinging over as his primary backup
  • Foye at the 2, backed up by Miller and/or Stevenson
  • Caron Butler at the 3, with Miller probably backing him and Foye up
  • Jamison at the 4, with Jeffries as his primary backup
  • Haywood at the 5, with Blatche or McGee as the primary backup
That lineup can score and can adjust to most matchups. Either Arenas or Foye would have a matchup they should be able to take advantage of and get into the lane, depending on how the defenses try to cover the two of them. Jamison should thrive playing off of two playmakers, as he is one of the best 4s off the ball in the entire League. Miller should be a big asset off the bench for the same reasons. Butler is among the best in the world at the 3. But outside of Haywood, they aren't that tough. Washington would need a third point guard if they trade Crittenton, but those are easier to come by than tough and serviceable big men, who have seemingly eluded the Wizards for years.

I don't think the Wizards have the assets to make more drastic changes than that without trading Jamison or Butler and blowing up the project. Since they don't seem willing to do that this year, I didn't go into those scenarios. Personally, I would have looked to trade Jamison after Orlando's run to the Finals last season. Like all professional sports leagues, NBA franchises tend to try and duplicate what other franchises do successfully. The value of a 4 who can stretch the floor is probably at an all-time high, and Washington won't get more for Jamison than they could have this summer.

The Wizards are better than people realize, but at some point that doesn't mean anything when you keep losing in the first round or two of the playoffs. Washington seems to realize that and improved the depth and versatility of its backcourt. If their young bigs can improve, and they should get at least a little better just from playing with a more talented backcourt, the Wizards might make a little noise. It's probably not likely, but not unthinkable considering Shaq's age in Cleveland, Kevin Garnett's knee problems and Orlando's loss of Hedo Turkoglu.

In reality though, all of these suggestions are just small maneuvers to help with Washington two biggest problems: injuries and maturity. If this team doesn't have the light click on upstairs, and also stay out of the training room more than they have recently, these small changes will just affect how much of a chance the Wizards have at winning next year's lottery.


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