Thoughts before the draft

Just so I have it documented somewhere, here are my predictions for the draft tonight, along with my thoughts about the pick:

1) Obviously Blake Griffin. There's not much to talk about there.

2) Hasheem Thabeet. I think this is a mistake, unless Memphis is looking to trade Gasol. That's too many slow centers for my personal tastes.

3) James Harden. I think he's the right pick if Thabeet isn't around. Westbrook has special athleticism at the point that isn't quite as special if he turns into an undersized two. Harden just fits into what they are doing in OKC.

4) Ricky Rubio. This was the first really difficult prediction, but ultimately I think it's the right decision. As much as I think Evans has the body you want with Kevin Martin, I think Rubio moves the ball better, which is ultimately what they need for a team that isn't all that tough. If you can't outhit them, outquick them.

5) Tyreke Evans. It's hard for Minnesota to go wrong with their backcourt, since they are essentially starting from scratch. As long as they pick two guys who can coexist, it shouldn't make much difference.

6) Jonny Flynn. I personally like Steph Curry better because of his length and shooting ability, but Flynn does give them more of an agitator and catalyst. With Love, Jefferson, Gomes, Brewer, and now Evans based on my selection for them, you have too many smart guys who aren't great athletes and not enough people who can go get their shot when the offense isn't working.

7) Jordan Hill. I like Curry more but it's not a bad pick based on their stated desire to move Stephen Jackson to the 2. Who the hell am I kidding? I don't like Hill AND I don't like the decision to move Jackson into the backcourt. Hill is a little light and a lot raw for my tastes. If you move Jackson to the 2, presumably it is to get him into the post more. But where is he going to post up if you keep getting big men who can't shoot and are too raw offensively to make themselves threats anyway? I hate the move for Golden State.

8) Stephen Curry. Great pick for the Knicks considering where they fell in the Lottery. He's not an answer, but he's definitely a piece in that offense.

9) Demar DeRozan. This one doesn't make much sense to me unless you're planning for life after Chris Bosh leves. DeRozan won't be able to help Bosh in the half-court because he's too raw, and he won't be able to help on the break because Jose Calderon won't take enough risks to take advantage of DeRozan's talent. DeRozan may be the most talented wing left, and Toronto may need a wing, but that doesn't mean they make sense together. I would rather see James Johnson go here and add to the versatility and toughness on the front line.

10) Jrue Holiday. I absolutely hate this pick. If Holiday wilted under Ben Howland, what is he going to do under Scott Skiles? I already have problems with point guards who seemingly don't want the limelight (and there are some serious doubts in my head about whether Holiday feels he belongs), but I think there's a serious chance of ruining a kid like that if you send him to a coach like Skiles. Plus, the Bucks are another team who could use some toughness up front. I would prefer Johnson or DeJuan Blair.

11) James Johnson. Ten minutes ago, I would have typed Terrance Williams here and not thought much of it. With the rumored trade of Vince Carter to Orlando for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Tony Battie, I think the Nets can address their front line and get a tweener forward who will increase heir flexibility. If you cant tell already, I'm pretty fond of Johnson and think every team should have at least one forward who can swing inside or out for about 15 minutes a game. To me, it's the only way you keep up with the LeBron's and Carmelo's.)

12) Terrence Williams. This is a blah pick to me. The Bobcats need a 2 and Williams is probably the best 2 left, but I don't see this pick improving the team. Charlotte is stuck in late lottery purgatory and needs to swing for a home run, but can't really do that because the only potential stars at this point would be ripped to shreds by Larry Brown. So a boring pick with not much chance of it turning into a steal. Don't get me wrong, I think Williams will be a pretty good pro. It's just that Charlotte needs better than pretty good.

13) Ty Lawson. I hate this pick, and it sums up why I'm not a fan of Larry Bird the executive. You already have two point guards on your roster you don't really want in Jamal Tinsley and TJ Ford. Tinsley is an arrest waiting to happen, and Ford is an undersized, injury-prone point who chafes at losing any playing time. Nobody wants either of them, yet you've decided you need another point, who is also undersized and a little injury-prone. I would rather take DeJuan Blair and ride him until his knees fall off, or until I can figure out a way to get rid of all of these point guards nobody likes.

14) Earl Clark. I'm not a big Clark fan, but I like the pick. It sounds strange, but I swear it makes sense somehow. The key to Phoenix's running style was always playing everyone up a position, and having guys who could take advantage of the quickness mismatches that caused. Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were too quick for most centers; Shawn Marion was too quick for most power forwards. Now Phoenix doesn't really have anyone who can change the complexion of the matchups like that. Clark is the one guy I see left who fits that bill. And he can't be more inconsistent that Diaw was, can he?

15) BJ Mullens. It's not the worst pick in the world, but I definitely don't like it. The Pistons don't really have much besides Jason Maxiell in terms of power players. Mullens and DeJuan Blair are probably the only two left worth this pick, but only Mullens compliments what Maxiell does well. Blair is a little too repetitive and doesn't give them enough length. That being said, nothing about Mullens impressed me last year. If I were the Pistons, I would probably draft a point guard to take some minutes away from Rodney Stuckey having to make all the decisions (I wasn't impressed) and then try to either sign some bigs with my cap room, or see what I can get for Tayshaun Prince and/or Richard Hamilton.

I'm running out of time, so below I'll just say who I think will be picked, followed by who I would take.

16) Gerald Henderson (DeJuan Blair)
17) Jeff Teague (Brandon Jennings)
18) Austin Daye (Sam Young)
19) Brandon Jennings (Brandon Jennings)
20) Tyler Hansborough (DeJuan Blair)
21) Sam Young (Jeff Teague)
22) DeJuan Blair (DeJuan Blair)
23) Omri Casspi (DaJuan Summers)
24) Eric Maynor (DaJuan Summers)
25) DaJuan Summers (DaJuan Summers) (Are you sensing who I think should go a little higher?)
26) Nick Calethes (Nick Calethes)
27) Toney Douglas (Chase Budinger)
28) Josh Heytvelt (Derrick Brown)
29) Wayne Ellington (Wayne Ellington)
30) Derrick Brown (Derrick Brown)