Sunday, June 28, 2009

What they need to do this summer: Chicago Bulls



My hometown Bulls. Chicago has been on a crazy roller coaster the last two years. Chicago went from young and talented team, to trendy dark horse pick to win the Eastern Conference, to Kobe Bryant's probable next home, to Lottery team, back to young and talented team. Somehow they managed to pull all of this off with only one major player change: adding Derrick Rose.

Unlike two years ago, when the Bulls seen as up and coming because of the sum of their young parts, this time it's all about Rose. In one short year (and a memorable seven game playoff series), Rose quickly established himself as one of the most exciting players in the League and huge part of the future of the point guard position alongside Chris Paul and Deron Williams. With Rose as the clear centerpiece, Chicago now has to figure out who fits around their young point and who might stunt his development. Look no further, Bulls. I am happy to give you the answer:

1) Trade Kirk Hinrich. The Bulls decided not to trade Hinrich last year because they wanted someone around to help Rose's transition and show him the ropes. After the playoffs last year, does anyone think that's still necessary? By all accounts, Rose is a very shy, humble kid who goes to painstaking levels to try to defer and fit in. Does Chicago really want Rose deferring to Hinrich, or anyone else for that matter? One of the things Rose needs to do to make the jump from good player to great point guard is become more aggressive. Rose has to learn when and how to demand the ball when Chicago needs a basket. Too many times last year, Bulls players forced up bad shots instead of getting the ball to Rose, which led to too much inconsistency. The best way to get a point guard to understand this is to take away the people he would otherwise defer to. That starts with Hinrich.

Even though he didn't start a lot of the season last year, Hinrich still has a lot of value around the League. There aren't many point guards with his size and ability to defend 2s. Hinrich's versatility would make him a great addition to a team like Miami to pair with Dwyane Wade. Portland has also been rumored to have interest in putting Hinrich next to Brandon Roy, and a trade for Martell Webster and Joel Przybilla would give the Bulls a long, sweet shooting 2 to pair with Rose, along with a big defensive-minded 5 to anchor their defense. Another trade partner for Hinrich that makes some sense is Phoenix. The Suns are without a clear identity at the moment, seemingly trying to build around Amar'e Stoudemire and Steve Nash, but with both players eligible for free agency in a year. The Suns are also abandoning their short-lived attempts to change into more of a halfcourt team and looking to get back to their Seven Seconds or Less philosophy. If the Suns are looking to trade Stoudemire, a package of Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas seems like a better deal for Phoenix than Andris Biedrins (who is better than Robin Lopez but still too similar), Brandan Wright and Marco Belinelli. Hinrich would serve as Nash's replacement and could also be paired with him to push the pace.

Hinrich is too good to keep off the floor completely, or to keep the ball out of his hands. Unless his presence is keeping the ball out of Rose's hands more.

2) Trade John Salmons. Salmons was a great pick-up for the Bulls last year, playing well beyond almost everyone's expectations. Sounds like a perfect time to trade him: buy low, sell high. Iknow this sounds crazy and that most Bulls fans would rather find a new home for Luol Deng after last year than Salmons. But the truth of the matter is that Deng's particular skill set is a better fit to play alongside the player Chicago hopes Derrick Rose will be. Deng is more of a catch-and-shoot slasher, where Salmons is better at creating his own shot. Plus, Deng is bigger and younger. It's easy to forget, but Deng just turned 24, while Salmons turns 30 this December.

After his playoff run, the Bulls should be able to get some real talent back for Salmons. But the trade that interests me the most would be straight-up for Jerry Stackhouse. Only $2 million of Stackhouse's $7.2 million for 2009-2010 is guaranteed, which would give Chicago a lot more flexibility to deal with Ben Gordon. Whether they try to re-sign Gordon or , Chicago would have $4-5 million less salary to push them up into the luxury tax.

By the way, I'm a late convert to letting Gordon go. It hurts me to say that as he was one of my favorite college players and has been by favorite Bull, but I don't think you can win big with a Rose-Gordon backcourt. Gordon could be traded by himself for a player (unlikely) or an expiring contract (more likely), or even packaged Tim Thomas and/or Jerome James in an early play for a big name 2010 free agent like Stoudemire or Chris Bosh. I think the Bulls have targeted and have a decent shot at Bosh, particularly if they can fill in some of the pieces around the 4 where Bosh would be. If they were able to trade Hinrich to Portland and Salmons to Dallas, Chicago would have a starting lineup that looked something like this:
  • Derrick Rose
  • Martell Webster
  • Luol Deng
  • Chris Bosh
  • Joel Przybilla
Assuming they also picked up the option on Joakim Noah as a backup big man and kept the two rookies drafted this year, Chicago would have less than $35 million in salaries committed to everyone but Bosh. Even if Bosh signs for $18 million as a starting salary, that still leaves the Bulls anywhere from $5-$8 million under the salary cap to fill out a roster that looks more balanced and talented than what Toronto has to offer. With a Rose-Deng-Bosh core locked in, the Bulls could quickly build a contender in Chicago.

3) Teach Luol Deng to play like a 4. For that Rose-Deng-Bosh core to be attractive to Bosh and as effective as it could be, Deng has to make some changes to the way he plays. To optimize the benefits he should have playing with Rose, Deng needs to play more like a pick-and-pop 4. As quick as Rose is, it is suicide as a defense to tell your point guard to fight through the screen in pick and roll situations without series help. Whenever someone sets a screen for Rose with the ball, the defense's attention has to turn to keeping him out of the lane or he's impossible to corral. Deng would constantly find himself open for a 17-footer after the screen, or would have a smaller guard sticking him if the defense was forced to switch. If he can learn how to play as the screener, Deng could easily average 20 points a game this year.

The problem is that Deng hasn't really played that role though, at least not since college when he had to play the 4 for Duke. He needs to spend the summer working on how to set screens, where to roll to find his shots after the screen, and posting up when he gets a smaller man switched on him. Sounds easy enough, right?

Well first, Vinny Del Negro has to realize that Rose and Deng are his best pick and roll option. A lot of times last year, Del Negro put Ben Gordon in bad situations by running pick and roll plays with big men who couldn't score. Knowing that the screener wasn't a threat (and that Gordon doesn't always make the best decisions with the ball), defenses often ignored the roll guy and doubled Gordon, forcing him to throw the ball over guys much taller than him and causing a lot of turnovers. Second, Deng has to embrace this role and understand how much it can benefit him. Deng complained early on last year that he didn't understand where his shots were coming from, which he says affected his shooting. The sooner he understands that playing off Rose is the key to his success in Chicago, the more likely Deng is to play like he's worth the contract the Bulls gave him. If he doesn't get it, Deng isn't talented enough from an athletic standpoint to develop much more. And if he does get his shots from elsewhere, he'll be hurting the Bulls by taking the ball out of Rose's hands. How good Deng is as a sidekick is totally up to Luol Deng.

The Bulls lucked out when they hit the Lottery and got a new direction with Derrick Rose. To get from the team they were before Rose came to Chicago to the team they need to be in order to win championships with him, the Bulls cannot be blinded by short-term gains. Despite the exciting playoff appearance last year, Chicago needs a makeover. Just because you have young and talented players does not mean they will bring out the best in Derrick Rose, or that Derrick Rose can bring out the best in them. The Bulls have hitched their wagon to Rose and need to put him with players who maximize his potential. How quickly the Bulls give Rose the keys the car will determine long it will take the team to build a real title contender.

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