Orlando surprised a lot of people this year (myself included) by knocking off Cleveland and making the NBA Finals. They capitalized on a quirky lineup starting two 6'10" small forwards and causing matchup problems that scrambled defenses and made the Magic extremely dangerous from 3. Last year's Magic team won't have the chance to build on their success though, since Orlando traded its rookie 2-guard Courtney Lee, mid-season point guard pickup Rafer Alston and Tony Battie to New Jersey for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson. Now, Hedo Turkoglu has opted out of his contract and seems unlikely to return.
As I've already written, I'm not a big fan of the Carter trade for Orlando. What made the Magic special and a matchup nightmare last year was that they were as unconventional as any team in the NBA. They started four guys who could shoot the 3, two of whom were 6'10", and a dominant athlete in Dwight Howard at the 5. As talented as Vince Carter is (and I think a lot of people forget sometimes), I've always thought it was more important for Orlando to be different than it was for them to be talented. But the trade has been made and can't be taken back now. So here's what Orlando needs to do to stay among the NBA elite:
1) Trade Mickael Pietrus for a bigger 3. The thing Orlando will miss most with Turkoglu gone is the fact that he initiated a lot of their offense. As a 6'10" 3, he could see over most people guarding him. Turkoglu's ability to handle the ball at his sized caused defenses to help off of shooters more than I think Orlando realized. The reason this is important is because if you start Carter and Pietrus, neither will have a huge size advantage. Carter would have an advantage over most 2s, but because he and Pietrus are essentially the same size, defenses could cross their 3s onto Carter if he proved to be too big for their 2s, negating Orlando's mismatch. A trade of Pietrus to Portland for Travis Outlaw and Nicolas Batum would make a lot of sense for both teams. It would give Portland the lockdown defender Nate McMillan covets, and it would give Orlando a big 3 to recreate some of the matchup problems the Magic thrive on. A trade for Tayshaun Prince, who is rumored to be available, would work similar reasons.
2) Develop Dwight Howard's lower body. Most people who see him would readily agree that Dwight Howard is a beast. As soon as they see his shoulders, people realize how massive he is. Shoulders don't help you get position on the block in the NBA though, your base does. As big and strong as Dwight Howard is up top, where he one of the League's strongest, his legs are not as elite. Shaq, Yao Ming, Kendrick Perkins, and even Andrew Bynum to a certain extent possess comparable leg strength and the ability to push Howard from his comfort zone on the block. That sucks for Magic fans, as these are the teams Orlando will probably have to get through to win a title. All through the playoffs, everyone talked about how Howard needed to develop a go-to move to become the best center in the game. Well that's only true if Howard can't overpower everyone else first. If I were the Magic, I would prefer that Howard spent the summer working on where he catches the ball instead of what he does with it once he has it. As the series with Boston showed, Howard is a lot less effective if you can make him catch the ball just two or three feet further out than he originally wanted.
3) Use Gortat in a sign-and-trade for a real 4. This sounds really strange and contradictory coming from me considering how much I think Orlando needs to keep its unorthodox lineups, but I promise there's some logic behind this. First, with so much money and cap space tied up in starters Jameer Nelson ($6-8 million per season), Vince Carter ($16-18 million per), Rashard Lewis ($18-23 million per) and Dwight Howard ($15-18 million per), the Magic cannot afford to pay market value for a backup 5. That money would be much better spent on someone who can play the 4 and the 5, which increases Orlando's versatility. Despite having Howard, the Magic are not a particularly good rebounding team. Adding someone who can back up Howard and also swing down to play the 4 also gives Orlando the option of moving Rashard Lewis down to the 3, which will also create mismatches. Gortat played pretty well in the playoffs and will probably have a lot of suitors. Big men usually do. Maybe a team like Miami, who needs to make space for Michael Beasley to become a bigger factor, would be willing to trade Udonis Haslem for a center and balance out its roster more. Oklahoma City might also be a good fit and could offer Nick Collison.
It took Orlando nearly 15 years to get back to the Finals after Shaq and Penny led the team there in 1995. The Magic had a tall ballhandler who created a lot of mismatches and chaos, and a dominant young big man down low. Last time the big man left, this time its the ballhandler. Unless the Magic can figure out another way to create mismatches, like the ideas above, I would expect them to come back to the pack in the East.
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