What they need to do this summer: Orlando Magic

Orlando surprised a lot of people this year (myself included) by knocking off Cleveland and making the NBA Finals. They capitalized on a quirky lineup starting two 6'10" small forwards and causing matchup problems that scrambled defenses and made the Magic extremely dangerous from 3. Last year's Magic team won't have the chance to build on their success though, since Orlando traded its rookie 2-guard Courtney Lee, mid-season point guard pickup Rafer Alston and Tony Battie to New Jersey for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson. Now, Hedo Turkoglu has opted out of his contract and seems unlikely to return.

As I've already written, I'm not a big fan of the Carter trade for Orlando. What made the Magic special and a matchup nightmare last year was that they were as unconventional as any team in the NBA. They started four guys who could shoot the 3, two of whom were 6'10", and a dominant athlete in Dwight Howard at the 5. As talented as Vince Carter is (and I think a lot of people forget sometimes), I've always thought it was more important for Orlando to be different than it was for them to be talented. But the trade has been made and can't be taken back now. So here's what Orlando needs to do to stay among the NBA elite:

1) Trade Mickael Pietrus for a bigger 3. The thing Orlando will miss most with Turkoglu gone is the fact that he initiated a lot of their offense. As a 6'10" 3, he could see over most people guarding him. Turkoglu's ability to handle the ball at his sized caused defenses to help off of shooters more than I think Orlando realized. The reason this is important is because if you start Carter and Pietrus, neither will have a huge size advantage. Carter would have an advantage over most 2s, but because he and Pietrus are essentially the same size, defenses could cross their 3s onto Carter if he proved to be too big for their 2s, negating Orlando's mismatch. A trade of Pietrus to Portland for Travis Outlaw and Nicolas Batum would make a lot of sense for both teams. It would give Portland the lockdown defender Nate McMillan covets, and it would give Orlando a big 3 to recreate some of the matchup problems the Magic thrive on. A trade for Tayshaun Prince, who is rumored to be available, would work similar reasons.

2) Develop Dwight Howard's lower body. Most people who see him would readily agree that Dwight Howard is a beast. As soon as they see his shoulders, people realize how massive he is. Shoulders don't help you get position on the block in the NBA though, your base does. As big and strong as Dwight Howard is up top, where he one of the League's strongest, his legs are not as elite. Shaq, Yao Ming, Kendrick Perkins, and even Andrew Bynum to a certain extent possess comparable leg strength and the ability to push Howard from his comfort zone on the block. That sucks for Magic fans, as these are the teams Orlando will probably have to get through to win a title. All through the playoffs, everyone talked about how Howard needed to develop a go-to move to become the best center in the game. Well that's only true if Howard can't overpower everyone else first. If I were the Magic, I would prefer that Howard spent the summer working on where he catches the ball instead of what he does with it once he has it. As the series with Boston showed, Howard is a lot less effective if you can make him catch the ball just two or three feet further out than he originally wanted.

3) Use Gortat in a sign-and-trade for a real 4. This sounds really strange and contradictory coming from me considering how much I think Orlando needs to keep its unorthodox lineups, but I promise there's some logic behind this. First, with so much money and cap space tied up in starters Jameer Nelson ($6-8 million per season), Vince Carter ($16-18 million per), Rashard Lewis ($18-23 million per) and Dwight Howard ($15-18 million per), the Magic cannot afford to pay market value for a backup 5. That money would be much better spent on someone who can play the 4 and the 5, which increases Orlando's versatility. Despite having Howard, the Magic are not a particularly good rebounding team. Adding someone who can back up Howard and also swing down to play the 4 also gives Orlando the option of moving Rashard Lewis down to the 3, which will also create mismatches. Gortat played pretty well in the playoffs and will probably have a lot of suitors. Big men usually do. Maybe a team like Miami, who needs to make space for Michael Beasley to become a bigger factor, would be willing to trade Udonis Haslem for a center and balance out its roster more. Oklahoma City might also be a good fit and could offer Nick Collison.

It took Orlando nearly 15 years to get back to the Finals after Shaq and Penny led the team there in 1995. The Magic had a tall ballhandler who created a lot of mismatches and chaos, and a dominant young big man down low. Last time the big man left, this time its the ballhandler. Unless the Magic can figure out another way to create mismatches, like the ideas above, I would expect them to come back to the pack in the East.

The Vince Carter, Orlando - New Jersey trade

New Jersey just traded Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson to Orlando for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Tony Battie. Vince Carter is the biggest name in the trade, and there used to be a time when you could judge trades based on who got the best player. That's not the case anymore, as players cannot adapt to differing styles and roles as easily. Now, players are used to either having the ball or playing off the ball, and aren't really able to go from one to the other.

I think Vince Carter is one of those players, and especially going to a quirky team like Orlando. It's even harder for a player like Carter to adjust to playing off the ball more (as he will likely be asked to do) at his advanced age and with some of the leg injuries he's had over the years. Not to mention, Vince only goes to the hole to create for himself. He's not going to turn into a great drive and kick guy all of the sudden, which is the bread and butter of the Magic offense.

Additionally, most people feel this trade takes away Orlando's ability to re-sign Hedo Turkoglu, who was a huge part of Orlando's success in the playoffs. One of the major keys to Orlando's success was the matchup issues they caused starting Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. Both are 6'10" and too quick for most power forwards. Where one usually had a size disadvantage on the boards, the other could at least partially make up for that by having a size advantage over 3s. Teams usually put 3s on Turkoglu and 4s on Lewis. With his size and ball handling ability, Turkoglu was also able to get some intermediate post opportunities.

If you start Vince at the 3, he doesn't have a size advantage over most 3s. One of the reasons why Orlando got so many 3s was because of Turkoglu's size. But with Vince at the 3, there is less reason to double. If you start Vince at the 2, you have to start Mikael Pietrus at the 3, which really weakens your bench. No Battie, no Alston and no Pietrus off the bench means the Magic are extremely thin. Not to mention, Turkoglu was Orlando's primary ball handler when Jameer Nelson was off the floor. Now you have a team that is about the same from a talent standpoint, but gave up a lot in terms of the awkward matchups it caused, which got Orlando a lot of free shots. If you don't have to come off a shooter to stop Vince, or if he can't get the ball to a shooter when that happens, Orlando loses a lot of opportunities -- and a lot more than just the points and assists Turkoglu gave them.

New Jersey, on the other hand, got depth and younger. Courtney Lee was a good rookie and is considerably younger than Carter. Rafer Alston gives the Nets a solid backup point if they choose to keep him, and can also play alongside Devin Harris if you need Harris to assume more of a scoring role. Tony Battie is serviceable and can teach the Nets' big men some professionalism. And New Jersey got a big contract off the books when they aren't really going anywhere. While Lee is not an upgrade in terms of talent, he is a much better fit to develop with Harris and Brook Lopez when they are ready to compete for a title.

All told, I think I like this trade for New Jersey, but not nearly as much for Orlando. I know I'm probably in the minority because people are drawn to stars. In this case, I don't think the star is going to translate into wins.