What they need to do this summer: Orlando Magic

Orlando surprised a lot of people this year (myself included) by knocking off Cleveland and making the NBA Finals. They capitalized on a quirky lineup starting two 6'10" small forwards and causing matchup problems that scrambled defenses and made the Magic extremely dangerous from 3. Last year's Magic team won't have the chance to build on their success though, since Orlando traded its rookie 2-guard Courtney Lee, mid-season point guard pickup Rafer Alston and Tony Battie to New Jersey for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson. Now, Hedo Turkoglu has opted out of his contract and seems unlikely to return.

As I've already written, I'm not a big fan of the Carter trade for Orlando. What made the Magic special and a matchup nightmare last year was that they were as unconventional as any team in the NBA. They started four guys who could shoot the 3, two of whom were 6'10", and a dominant athlete in Dwight Howard at the 5. As talented as Vince Carter is (and I think a lot of people forget sometimes), I've always thought it was more important for Orlando to be different than it was for them to be talented. But the trade has been made and can't be taken back now. So here's what Orlando needs to do to stay among the NBA elite:

1) Trade Mickael Pietrus for a bigger 3. The thing Orlando will miss most with Turkoglu gone is the fact that he initiated a lot of their offense. As a 6'10" 3, he could see over most people guarding him. Turkoglu's ability to handle the ball at his sized caused defenses to help off of shooters more than I think Orlando realized. The reason this is important is because if you start Carter and Pietrus, neither will have a huge size advantage. Carter would have an advantage over most 2s, but because he and Pietrus are essentially the same size, defenses could cross their 3s onto Carter if he proved to be too big for their 2s, negating Orlando's mismatch. A trade of Pietrus to Portland for Travis Outlaw and Nicolas Batum would make a lot of sense for both teams. It would give Portland the lockdown defender Nate McMillan covets, and it would give Orlando a big 3 to recreate some of the matchup problems the Magic thrive on. A trade for Tayshaun Prince, who is rumored to be available, would work similar reasons.

2) Develop Dwight Howard's lower body. Most people who see him would readily agree that Dwight Howard is a beast. As soon as they see his shoulders, people realize how massive he is. Shoulders don't help you get position on the block in the NBA though, your base does. As big and strong as Dwight Howard is up top, where he one of the League's strongest, his legs are not as elite. Shaq, Yao Ming, Kendrick Perkins, and even Andrew Bynum to a certain extent possess comparable leg strength and the ability to push Howard from his comfort zone on the block. That sucks for Magic fans, as these are the teams Orlando will probably have to get through to win a title. All through the playoffs, everyone talked about how Howard needed to develop a go-to move to become the best center in the game. Well that's only true if Howard can't overpower everyone else first. If I were the Magic, I would prefer that Howard spent the summer working on where he catches the ball instead of what he does with it once he has it. As the series with Boston showed, Howard is a lot less effective if you can make him catch the ball just two or three feet further out than he originally wanted.

3) Use Gortat in a sign-and-trade for a real 4. This sounds really strange and contradictory coming from me considering how much I think Orlando needs to keep its unorthodox lineups, but I promise there's some logic behind this. First, with so much money and cap space tied up in starters Jameer Nelson ($6-8 million per season), Vince Carter ($16-18 million per), Rashard Lewis ($18-23 million per) and Dwight Howard ($15-18 million per), the Magic cannot afford to pay market value for a backup 5. That money would be much better spent on someone who can play the 4 and the 5, which increases Orlando's versatility. Despite having Howard, the Magic are not a particularly good rebounding team. Adding someone who can back up Howard and also swing down to play the 4 also gives Orlando the option of moving Rashard Lewis down to the 3, which will also create mismatches. Gortat played pretty well in the playoffs and will probably have a lot of suitors. Big men usually do. Maybe a team like Miami, who needs to make space for Michael Beasley to become a bigger factor, would be willing to trade Udonis Haslem for a center and balance out its roster more. Oklahoma City might also be a good fit and could offer Nick Collison.

It took Orlando nearly 15 years to get back to the Finals after Shaq and Penny led the team there in 1995. The Magic had a tall ballhandler who created a lot of mismatches and chaos, and a dominant young big man down low. Last time the big man left, this time its the ballhandler. Unless the Magic can figure out another way to create mismatches, like the ideas above, I would expect them to come back to the pack in the East.

What they need to do this summer: Miami Heat

It seems like a long time since Miami won the NBA title. Maybe it's just me, but I always feel like Dwyane Wade is much closer to 30 than his actual age: 27. Teams with stars on Wade's level don't usually fall apart and only win 15 games unless that star is on a serious decline. But the Heat did, which put them in the Lottery where they picked up Michael Beasley. Despite the fact that Miami rebounded last year and made the playoffs, it doesn't seem like Beasley has really fit into what Miami wants to do. One of Miami's favorite veterans, Udonis Haslem, plays the 4. Beasley wasn't ready or willing to defend at the 3. And Beasley's laid back personality doesn't seem a good fit on a team built by Pat Riley. Maybe it's not his fault though; apparently he wasn't asked to play any defense during his AAU years.

Don't get me wrong, it's not like Miami's situation is doom and gloom. First, Wade and Beasley are two of the most talented players in the entire League. Second, the Heat have NOBODY under guaranteed contract in 2010-2011, so they can easily blow up whatever isn't working and will be a major player in the free agent market after next season or in trades this season for teams looking to drop payroll commitments. Miami also picked up a nice piece in the second round of last year's draft in Mario Chalmers. But convince Wade to stay and to build this team into a contender, Miami has its work cut out. Here are some good initial steps:

1) Trade Beasley for a big man. For all the reasons above, I don't think Beasley and Wade will ever fit together as the building blocks for the Heat. As much as I love Beasley's talent, I don't think he has the tempermant or drive to adjust to being a secondary star. And as long as Wade is in Miami, that's what Beasley will be. It's not like other teams have forgotten how talented Beasley is though, so Miami should be able to get a lot for him. Emeka Okafor is one example of a player I think would work well with Wade and can probably be had for Beasley and filler. I don't know if either Miami or Charlotte could turn a deal built around those two players down. It would give the Bobcats a legitimate star talent to build around, and it would give the a defender and shot blocker to replace what Alonzo Mourning provided for years.

2) Trade Haslem for a versatile guard. Wade has said in years past that he doesn't want to play the point. But as young as the Heat were last year, Wade had to take on a lot of point guard responsibilities. Instead of just worrying about his job, he had to get people into the right place, figure out who should have the ball and who shouldn't, and generally manage the team from the floor. It's too draining to be a top-flight scorer and manage everyone else's expectations also. By asking Wade to be both its scorer and de-facto point, Wade's two roles often conflicted with one another. What does this have to do with Haslem? Well, Haslem is the Heat's other valuable trade chip. Not only does he have an expiring contract, but he's also a solid leader and 4 who can step out and make a shot. As we saw with Orlando this past postseason (and have heard ad nauseum since), having a big man who can space the floor is essential against defenses in the playoffs. You need your big men to be threats so your stars have enough room to drive. For Miami at this point though, it is more important that they let Wade loose and allow him to attack on every time offense instead of worrying about getting everyone else involved. Would Chicago bite on Haslem and Dorell Wright for Kirk Hinrich, or something similar? (And if the Heat think they can get that point from somewhere else, they could also try to get a young talent to put with Wade like Wilson Chandler from the Knicks by taking on Jared Jeffries' contract. That 2-for-1 works on the ESPN trade checker.)

3) Don't do anything else to screw up cap space for next year. Even with the trades above, Miami is in position to be a huge player in 2010 free agency. For the sake of argument, let's say that the Heat re-signed Jamario Moon for $3 million a year, traded Beasley and James Jones for Okafor, then traded Haslem and Dorell Wright for Hinrich. Going into 2010-2011, they would have Hinrich at the 1 ($9 million), Wade at the 2 (around $20 million), Moon at the 3 ($3 million), and Okafor at the 5 ($11.5 million). I think Chris Bosh would be seriously interested. That's only $43 million and a much more attractive lineup than Bosh has with him in Toronto.

Wade may not be the 30 I think he is, but he's not far from it. With the way he plays, there's even more of a need for Miami to go for it now. It's doubtful Miami would want to put that much money into their starting lineup with no bench to speak of, but at a minimum it's an interesting blueprint for Heat fans to dream about.

What they need to do this summer: Charlotte Bobcats

Most people have considered the Bobcats a young, up and coming team for a few years now. They haven't been able to get over the hump and into the playoffs, though. The last two or three years, Charlotte has been stuck in purgatory: not good enough to compete with the big boys, and not bad enough to get a difference maker at the top of the draft. So what do you do if you have good young players, but no superstars to make you relevant in the postseason?

1)Trade Raja Bell. Bell is Charlotte's only player who has a contract expiring in 2010, which means the Bobcats might be able to find a team desperate to save money or get as far under the cap as possible next year. Yes, Larry Brown values the presence of veterans like Bell. But Charlotte doesn't need good guys nearly as much as they need great players. While they are at it, Charlotte should see what they can get for Gerald Wallace, and Emeka Okafor. It's not that I don't like these guys, it's that they aren't talented enough to carry a team, and that's what they would have to do for the Bobcats. For other teams who are closer to the top, these players could make a big difference though, and they might be worth a lot in a trade. Once Okafor's base-year status expires, wouldn't it make sense for Charlotte and Miami to talk about trading him for Michael Beasley if the rumors about Riley not being a big fan are true? Or maybe to the Hawks for Josh Smith? And what about Raja Bell to New Orleans for Julian Wright and Rasual Butler? Would a team like the Knicks give you Wilson Chandler for Bell and Alexis Ajinca to get rid of Jared Jeffries contract? I don't really have many good ideas for how to trade Gerald Wallace, but the point is that Charlotte does have some guys other people want. Packaged right, the Bobcats should see if they can get a talented player on his rookie contract who hasn't yet met expectations.

2) Change the philosophy. If you have middle of the road talent, you need to at least have a philosophy that can make those players appear better. Phoenix did this a little bit with Shawn Marion, who isn't a middle of the road talent but was made better by the Phoenix system. At the 3, Shawn Marion had a flawed shot, an average handle, and would have relied more on his elite athleticism than his skills. As a 4 though, Marion is an even more elite athlete, and his ability to stretch the floor by knocking down shots is a plus, not the minus it was as a three. Phoenix was able to get away with playing Marion out of position because he's a very good defender and rebounder. If they can't figure out a way to get more talent, they have to find a way to get more out of what they have. Make chicken salad out of chicken ... Boris Diaw is another example from the Suns, and part of the reason I suggested shopping Okafor above. The easiest way for Charlotte to change their philosophy is to get the ball to Diaw, who is one of the best passers from the post in the League. If Charlotte can run more of its offense through Diaw (which is only possible with a bigger scoring threat at the other big man), the floor opens up and Charlotte becomes a matchup nightmare for teams with slower 5s.

3) Start Ray Felton at the 2 next to DJ Augustin. Felton is not a full-time 2. I understand that and don't even think he's a full-time starter. But again, Charlotte needs to make its opponents match up to them instead of always matching up to their opponents. While a Felton-Augustin backcourt is undersized, it is also very quick, and one of them is going to annoy whatever 2 has to chase him around. If Charlotte can't get a wing who is talented enough to beat other wings off the dribble, they should manufacture that same

So in an ideal world, how would Charlotte look next season? Smaller and more unpredictable. They have a nice chip in DJ Augustin who can get into the paint with ease. Now they need a couple of other guys who can do the same. They also need to take more risks. For example, if Charlotte could talk Miami into the Okafor-Beasley trade I mentioned above and New York into the Bell/Alexis Ajinca-Chandler/Jeffries deal, their starting lineup could look something like this:

• Augustin
• Felton or Henderson
• Chandler
• Beasley
• Diaw

That lineup has a lot more potential to develop into something than the one they have now. Or at least I'd be a lot more willing to buy a ticket to see that team, which is another huge problem for the Bobcats. Go big or go home Charlotte. Being on the verge of the playoffs doesn't do much for me, and developing at a snail's pace does even less. You're in NASCAR country, you should know what Ricky Bobby's dad, Reese Bobby says: "if you ain't first, you're last."

What they need to do this summer: Atlanta Hawks

For the first time probably since the Dominique Wilkins-Danny Manning trade, the Hawks are coming off two consecutive playoffs seasons. After years and years of adding young talent, it finally looks like some of those players are panning out and turning the Hawks into a perennial playoff contender. But now comes the hard part, where the Hawks have to go from just being in the playoffs to being a threat to actually win in the playoffs.

Actually Atlanta made a lot of progress this year, actually getting home court and winning their first series. And their talent level isn't that far off from some of the other contenders, but their play is. They need a lot of development from their core players and to make some smart moves this off-season. If they do the following, they should be able to make another jump next year:

1) Josh Smith needs to become a power forward. Smith has the athletic ability to compete at the 3, but I guarantee you every Atlanta opponent starts smiling when he tries to play like one. Sure he can knock down some shots, but does he really scare you when he settles for jumpers? Nothing pisses you off when you watch the Hawks more than the teases of star talent Smith displays when he aggressively attacks sprinkled in between slow isolations and jump shots without even one dribble. Smith needs to take a serious look in the mirror this summer and finally realize that if the ball comes to rest on offense in his hands, something went terribly wrong. The ball needs to be in the hands of Atlanta's guards until they want Smith to do something with it. Smith's game needs to be predicated on aggression, and the jumpshots should only be a counter when teams start to sag and take away the paint. I'm not putting all of the blame on him though. Both the guards and coaching staff need to do a better job of putting Smith in positions to succeed. If I had to guess, I would imagine this is what Smith and Woodson are always fighting about, so it's not that Woodson isn't trying. He isn't succeeding though, and it shows the deeper you get into the playoffs. Whoever is working out with Smith this summer needs to take the ball out of his hands and just teach him how to play off of a pick and roll. Everyone in the Hawks' organization would be much happier if he could do that. Probably won't happen, but Atlanta needs it to make the jump.

2) Define the guard's roles. The Hawks just picked up Jamal Crawford for practically nothing, which is great from a talent standpoint but not necessarily from a chemistry point of view. Crawford has a terrible reputation of being selfish which I don't entirely agree with, but he does take a lot of bad shots. I've always thought that Crawford's bigger problem is that he doesn't have a high basketball IQ and often tries too hard to do what the coach wants instead of taking what the defense gives him. Larry Brown used to say similar things about Crawford, and I don't think Brown is very fond of players who are as selfish as Crawford's reputation suggests. That being said, after this many years Crawford needs a clear directive that he shouldn't be shooting every time down. I would imagine that Crawford and Johnson will share ball handling duties early on, which is dangerous because Crawford will alternate between being too aggressive and too passive. Now that you've traded for him, you have to live with him. And the only way to live with Crawford is to tell him he's the point or tell him he's the 2. He can't play in between. If you see Crawford as your point, pick up the pace and be prepared for some great plays and some headache inducing turnovers. If you aren't sure, tell Crawford to learn how to catch and shoot (amazingly, when he was with the Bulls Crawford said he never learned how to do that. I guess it's not that amazing if you aren't a fan, but I think it's incredible NBA level talent skipped over such a fundamental thing). Jeff Teague is a pretty good pick up considering where they drafted, but he probably isn't ready to step in and play big minutes just yet. He needs to understand what he's doing as soon as possible though, because they will need him this year. Atlanta is thin in the backcourt unless they improbably bring back Mike Bibby.

3) Turn Marvin Williams into a point forward. Marvin Williams is a huge talent and a mismatch against most 3s. Williams is also content scoring 15 instead of trying to destroy his opponent every time out. The Hawks need to tell Williams that he is going to have the ball in his hands early and often, and is responsible for getting into the lane to get everyone else going. Where Williams is lacking in terms of a killer instinct, Atlanta needs to force feed him. He needs to go into the season expecting and demanding the ball consistently, which is a big adjustment for him personality-wise. But the Hawks need another ball handler who can cause mismatches other than Johnson, and it won't be Crawford consistently and you don't want Smith to audition for that role. It has to be Williams for this team to threaten Cleveland and Orlando.

4) Re-sign Zaza Pachulia and try to steal another big man. Unlike most teams who are just making the playoffs but trying to make the jump to contender, the Hawks already have the versatility to play a lot of different ways. They can play Johnson, Williams, and Smith at the 2-3-4, they can play Johnson at the 3 with either Smith or Williams at the 4, or they can play Al Horford at the 4 and match up with some of the bigger lineups around the League. But they need a big who can give them the flexibility to pull off all of these different combinations. They need a 5 who can step away from the basket and give Johnson or Williams room to post up a small wing. They also need a big who can bang down low and compete with Dwight Howard, Kendrick Perkins and Shaq. Pachulia did a pretty good job last year and I don't think they should let him go for free. But they need another big to add to this rotation. Maybe this would be a good home for the Polish Hammer, Marcin Gortat.

Atlanta has some serious mental question marks with Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Jamal Crawford, but they also have some serious talent too. This is the wrong time for them to be satisfied with their small steps toward contending. They need Mike Woodson and the front office to step up now and make some of these changes I recommended, or they need them to step out of the way before it's too late.

Assessing the Shaq to Cleveland trade

When Shaq got traded to Cleveland for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic, I didn't think it would really improve Cleveland all that much. Sure, Shaq is a huge upgrade in terms of strength and low post scoring, but he's also a lane clogger that will take away some of LeBron's ability to get all the way to the rim too. Shaq also has never been great against the pick and roll, so that area of Cleveland's defense won't really improve. And Shaq has never been all that happy being a secondary option, which is exactly what he'll be in Mike Brown's offense.

But the more I thought about it though, the more sense it made for Cleveland. Looking back at the Eastern Conference Finals, a lot of the mismatch problems Orlando caused on the outside actually came from the inside. Where Kendrick Perkins was able to push Dwight Howard out further and somewhat neutralize him, the Cavs were extremely deficient. Rashard Lewis wasn't beating people off the dribble as much as he was catching people Anderson Varejao peeking inside and not being able to recover. If he doesn't have to help so much, maybe Varejao won't look as bad trying to cover Lewis this time around.

I really started feeling better about the trade for Cleveland once Orlando made their trade for Vince Carter, virtually assuring that Hedo Turkoglu won't be back. Losing Turkoglu takes away the other matchup that could potentially make a defense scramble against Orlando, which is really how they get their shots. You don't think that of Shaq as a defensive anchor anymore, but he can still play that role just because of his size. And especially against Orlando with Howard and Boston with Perkins, the two other top contenders in the East. Just being able to stay at home more and not come running every time a big man catches the ball down low automatically makes Cleveland a much better defensive team.

On offense, Shaq puts someone dangerous on the block for a team that has a lot of shooters, which is never a bad thing. It does take away from LeBron's effectiveness in isolations, but wasn't that the goal all of last season anyway? It seemed like Cleveland brought in Mo Williams to take LeBron off the ball more and it worked in the regular season. LeBron got a lot more lobs in the halfcourt and back door cuts, which he really needs to develop into a championship threat. He can't just sit at the top and drive against the best defenses because they rotate too well for that. The Spurs proved that in the Finals, and the Celtics proved it last year. Adding

Shaq is definitely a step in the right direction, but Cleveland still needs to improve its forwards. They need a small forward who allows them to play smaller with LeBron at the four in short spurts, and they need a four who can step out and be a threat from 18-20 feet so Shaq and LeBron have enough space to operate. If Varejao has to play too many minutes, you eventually end up playing 4-on-5. But this move does shore up more of Cleveland's holes and make them more versatile than and dangerous.

Next step: Mike Brown has to show he can make these pieces fit. That may be the biggest challenge of all for the Cavs. More on that later this summer.

*That's it from a basketball standpoint, I'm sure the "worldwide leader in sports" will have more to say on what this means to NBA introductions.



Expect a hard-hitting piece on Outside the Lines to follow this up any day now.

The Vince Carter, Orlando - New Jersey trade

New Jersey just traded Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson to Orlando for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Tony Battie. Vince Carter is the biggest name in the trade, and there used to be a time when you could judge trades based on who got the best player. That's not the case anymore, as players cannot adapt to differing styles and roles as easily. Now, players are used to either having the ball or playing off the ball, and aren't really able to go from one to the other.

I think Vince Carter is one of those players, and especially going to a quirky team like Orlando. It's even harder for a player like Carter to adjust to playing off the ball more (as he will likely be asked to do) at his advanced age and with some of the leg injuries he's had over the years. Not to mention, Vince only goes to the hole to create for himself. He's not going to turn into a great drive and kick guy all of the sudden, which is the bread and butter of the Magic offense.

Additionally, most people feel this trade takes away Orlando's ability to re-sign Hedo Turkoglu, who was a huge part of Orlando's success in the playoffs. One of the major keys to Orlando's success was the matchup issues they caused starting Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. Both are 6'10" and too quick for most power forwards. Where one usually had a size disadvantage on the boards, the other could at least partially make up for that by having a size advantage over 3s. Teams usually put 3s on Turkoglu and 4s on Lewis. With his size and ball handling ability, Turkoglu was also able to get some intermediate post opportunities.

If you start Vince at the 3, he doesn't have a size advantage over most 3s. One of the reasons why Orlando got so many 3s was because of Turkoglu's size. But with Vince at the 3, there is less reason to double. If you start Vince at the 2, you have to start Mikael Pietrus at the 3, which really weakens your bench. No Battie, no Alston and no Pietrus off the bench means the Magic are extremely thin. Not to mention, Turkoglu was Orlando's primary ball handler when Jameer Nelson was off the floor. Now you have a team that is about the same from a talent standpoint, but gave up a lot in terms of the awkward matchups it caused, which got Orlando a lot of free shots. If you don't have to come off a shooter to stop Vince, or if he can't get the ball to a shooter when that happens, Orlando loses a lot of opportunities -- and a lot more than just the points and assists Turkoglu gave them.

New Jersey, on the other hand, got depth and younger. Courtney Lee was a good rookie and is considerably younger than Carter. Rafer Alston gives the Nets a solid backup point if they choose to keep him, and can also play alongside Devin Harris if you need Harris to assume more of a scoring role. Tony Battie is serviceable and can teach the Nets' big men some professionalism. And New Jersey got a big contract off the books when they aren't really going anywhere. While Lee is not an upgrade in terms of talent, he is a much better fit to develop with Harris and Brook Lopez when they are ready to compete for a title.

All told, I think I like this trade for New Jersey, but not nearly as much for Orlando. I know I'm probably in the minority because people are drawn to stars. In this case, I don't think the star is going to translate into wins.

Thoughts before the draft

Just so I have it documented somewhere, here are my predictions for the draft tonight, along with my thoughts about the pick:

1) Obviously Blake Griffin. There's not much to talk about there.

2) Hasheem Thabeet. I think this is a mistake, unless Memphis is looking to trade Gasol. That's too many slow centers for my personal tastes.

3) James Harden. I think he's the right pick if Thabeet isn't around. Westbrook has special athleticism at the point that isn't quite as special if he turns into an undersized two. Harden just fits into what they are doing in OKC.

4) Ricky Rubio. This was the first really difficult prediction, but ultimately I think it's the right decision. As much as I think Evans has the body you want with Kevin Martin, I think Rubio moves the ball better, which is ultimately what they need for a team that isn't all that tough. If you can't outhit them, outquick them.

5) Tyreke Evans. It's hard for Minnesota to go wrong with their backcourt, since they are essentially starting from scratch. As long as they pick two guys who can coexist, it shouldn't make much difference.

6) Jonny Flynn. I personally like Steph Curry better because of his length and shooting ability, but Flynn does give them more of an agitator and catalyst. With Love, Jefferson, Gomes, Brewer, and now Evans based on my selection for them, you have too many smart guys who aren't great athletes and not enough people who can go get their shot when the offense isn't working.

7) Jordan Hill. I like Curry more but it's not a bad pick based on their stated desire to move Stephen Jackson to the 2. Who the hell am I kidding? I don't like Hill AND I don't like the decision to move Jackson into the backcourt. Hill is a little light and a lot raw for my tastes. If you move Jackson to the 2, presumably it is to get him into the post more. But where is he going to post up if you keep getting big men who can't shoot and are too raw offensively to make themselves threats anyway? I hate the move for Golden State.

8) Stephen Curry. Great pick for the Knicks considering where they fell in the Lottery. He's not an answer, but he's definitely a piece in that offense.

9) Demar DeRozan. This one doesn't make much sense to me unless you're planning for life after Chris Bosh leves. DeRozan won't be able to help Bosh in the half-court because he's too raw, and he won't be able to help on the break because Jose Calderon won't take enough risks to take advantage of DeRozan's talent. DeRozan may be the most talented wing left, and Toronto may need a wing, but that doesn't mean they make sense together. I would rather see James Johnson go here and add to the versatility and toughness on the front line.

10) Jrue Holiday. I absolutely hate this pick. If Holiday wilted under Ben Howland, what is he going to do under Scott Skiles? I already have problems with point guards who seemingly don't want the limelight (and there are some serious doubts in my head about whether Holiday feels he belongs), but I think there's a serious chance of ruining a kid like that if you send him to a coach like Skiles. Plus, the Bucks are another team who could use some toughness up front. I would prefer Johnson or DeJuan Blair.

11) James Johnson. Ten minutes ago, I would have typed Terrance Williams here and not thought much of it. With the rumored trade of Vince Carter to Orlando for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Tony Battie, I think the Nets can address their front line and get a tweener forward who will increase heir flexibility. If you cant tell already, I'm pretty fond of Johnson and think every team should have at least one forward who can swing inside or out for about 15 minutes a game. To me, it's the only way you keep up with the LeBron's and Carmelo's.)

12) Terrence Williams. This is a blah pick to me. The Bobcats need a 2 and Williams is probably the best 2 left, but I don't see this pick improving the team. Charlotte is stuck in late lottery purgatory and needs to swing for a home run, but can't really do that because the only potential stars at this point would be ripped to shreds by Larry Brown. So a boring pick with not much chance of it turning into a steal. Don't get me wrong, I think Williams will be a pretty good pro. It's just that Charlotte needs better than pretty good.

13) Ty Lawson. I hate this pick, and it sums up why I'm not a fan of Larry Bird the executive. You already have two point guards on your roster you don't really want in Jamal Tinsley and TJ Ford. Tinsley is an arrest waiting to happen, and Ford is an undersized, injury-prone point who chafes at losing any playing time. Nobody wants either of them, yet you've decided you need another point, who is also undersized and a little injury-prone. I would rather take DeJuan Blair and ride him until his knees fall off, or until I can figure out a way to get rid of all of these point guards nobody likes.

14) Earl Clark. I'm not a big Clark fan, but I like the pick. It sounds strange, but I swear it makes sense somehow. The key to Phoenix's running style was always playing everyone up a position, and having guys who could take advantage of the quickness mismatches that caused. Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were too quick for most centers; Shawn Marion was too quick for most power forwards. Now Phoenix doesn't really have anyone who can change the complexion of the matchups like that. Clark is the one guy I see left who fits that bill. And he can't be more inconsistent that Diaw was, can he?

15) BJ Mullens. It's not the worst pick in the world, but I definitely don't like it. The Pistons don't really have much besides Jason Maxiell in terms of power players. Mullens and DeJuan Blair are probably the only two left worth this pick, but only Mullens compliments what Maxiell does well. Blair is a little too repetitive and doesn't give them enough length. That being said, nothing about Mullens impressed me last year. If I were the Pistons, I would probably draft a point guard to take some minutes away from Rodney Stuckey having to make all the decisions (I wasn't impressed) and then try to either sign some bigs with my cap room, or see what I can get for Tayshaun Prince and/or Richard Hamilton.

I'm running out of time, so below I'll just say who I think will be picked, followed by who I would take.

16) Gerald Henderson (DeJuan Blair)
17) Jeff Teague (Brandon Jennings)
18) Austin Daye (Sam Young)
19) Brandon Jennings (Brandon Jennings)
20) Tyler Hansborough (DeJuan Blair)
21) Sam Young (Jeff Teague)
22) DeJuan Blair (DeJuan Blair)
23) Omri Casspi (DaJuan Summers)
24) Eric Maynor (DaJuan Summers)
25) DaJuan Summers (DaJuan Summers) (Are you sensing who I think should go a little higher?)
26) Nick Calethes (Nick Calethes)
27) Toney Douglas (Chase Budinger)
28) Josh Heytvelt (Derrick Brown)
29) Wayne Ellington (Wayne Ellington)
30) Derrick Brown (Derrick Brown)